Football · France Ligue 1 · 21/08, 20:45
Prediction: Marseille vs Strasbourg
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.51Total
Marseille2.18
Strasbourg1.34
1X2
Marseille
Draw
Strasbourg
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Marseille
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Strasbourg
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Marseille
1–4–1
Strasbourg
(6 last)
- Marseille2-2Strasbourg
- Strasbourg1-2Marseille
- Marseille1-1Strasbourg
- Strasbourg1-0Marseille
- Marseille1-1Strasbourg
- Strasbourg1-1Marseille
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marseille 1553 · Strasbourg 1436
| Marseille | Draw | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marseille (rating 1553 vs 1436).
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marseille | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.3 | 1.3 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marseille 1–4–1 Strasbourg
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Strasbourg |
| 26/09/25 France Ligue 1 | Strasbourg | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Marseille |
| 19/01/25 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Strasbourg |
| 29/09/24 France Ligue 1 | Strasbourg | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Marseille |
| 12/01/24 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Strasbourg |
| 25/11/23 France Ligue 1 | Strasbourg | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Marseille |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auxerre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Angers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Troyes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lorient | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Le Havre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Le Mans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lyon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Marseille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Paris FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | PSG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rennes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Strasbourg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Toulouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marseille
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Atletico Madrid Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Athletic Bilbao Elite Club Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 05/08 | Al-Shahaniya SC Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 30/07 | Nimes Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Nice Elite Club Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 17/07 | Yamoussoukro FC Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | Yamoussoukro FC Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Rennes France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Nantes France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
Strasbourg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Newcastle Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 08/08 | SC Freiburg Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 04/08 | Elversberg Europe Friendlies |
2-2 | 2-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Brighton Club Friendly List |
2-2 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | Blackburn Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 20/07 | Sporting Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-7 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 17/05 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
1-3 | 5-4 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 13/05 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 07/05 | Rayo Vallecano UEFA Conference League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marseille vs Strasbourg?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Marseille win (55%). Probabilities: Marseille 55%, draw 23%, Strasbourg 22%.
How many goals are expected in Marseille vs Strasbourg?
The model expects 3.51 goals (Marseille 2.18 · Strasbourg 1.34), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Strasbourg?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.