Football · France Ligue 1 · 22/08, 20:45
Prediction: Le Mans vs Brest
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Le Mans1.48
Brest1.4
1X2
Le Mans
Draw
Brest
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Le Mans
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Brest
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Le Mans 1512 · Brest 1450
| Le Mans | Draw | Brest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Le Mans (rating 1512 vs 1450).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Le Mans | Brest | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1 | 1.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 5.3 | 1.5 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 1.2 / 0 |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auxerre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Angers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Troyes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lorient | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Le Havre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Le Mans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lyon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Marseille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Paris FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | PSG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rennes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Strasbourg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Toulouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Le Mans
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Le Havre Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Saumur Olympique Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 08/08 | UNFP Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 01/08 | Angers Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Nantes Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 22/07 | Versailles 78 Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | La Roche VF Europe Friendlies |
1-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Reims France Ligue 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Grenoble France Ligue 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 17/04 | Clermont Foot France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Brest
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Nottm Forest Elite Club Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 08/08 | Venezia Elite Club Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 05/08 | Stade Briochin Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/08 | Guingamp Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/07 | Al-Wakrah SC World Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Concarneau Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 17/05 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 13/05 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Le Mans vs Brest?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Le Mans win (38%). Probabilities: Le Mans 38%, draw 27%, Brest 35%.
How many goals are expected in Le Mans vs Brest?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Le Mans 1.48 · Brest 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Brest?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.