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Football · France Ligue 1 · 23/08, 15:00

Prediction: Angers vs Lille

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Angers0.86
Lille1.65
1X2
19% 26% 55%
Angers Draw Lille
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Angers 1-4-5 (W-D-L)
WLLDLDLLDD
Lille 6-3-1 (W-D-L)
DWWWWDWDWL
Head-to-head
Angers 1–5 Lille (6 last)
  • Angers0-1Lille
  • Lille1-0Angers
  • Angers0-2Lille
  • Lille2-0Angers
  • Angers1-0Lille
  • Lille1-0Angers
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Angers 1475 · Lille 1592
AngersDrawLille
Our model18%27%55%
Market19%26%56%
Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lille (rating 1475 vs 1592).
  • H2H favours Lille: 5-0-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

AngersLille
Goals for / against (FT)0.7 / 1.81.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)0.1 / 10.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)0/50/50%40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)1.5 / 3.82.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)2.7 / 0.34.8 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · Angers 1–0–5 Lille

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DateHomeScoreAway
22/02/26
France Ligue 1
Angers0-1
HT 0-1
Lille
02/11/25
France Ligue 1
Lille1-0
HT 1-0
Angers
27/04/25
France Ligue 1
Angers0-2
HT 0-1
Lille
24/08/24
France Ligue 1
Lille2-0
HT 1-0
Angers
08/04/23
France Ligue 1
Angers1-0
HT 0-0
Lille
13/11/22
France Ligue 1
Lille1-0
HT 1-0
Angers

Standings · France Ligue 1

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#Team PWL GFGAPts
1 Marseille 110 403
2 Auxerre 000 000
2 Angers 000 000
2 Monaco 000 000
2 Troyes 000 000
2 Lorient 000 000
2 Le Havre 000 000
2 Le Mans 000 000
2 Lille 000 000
2 Nice 000 000
2 Lyon 000 000
2 Paris FC 000 000
2 PSG 000 000
2 Lens 000 000
2 Brest 000 000
2 Rennes 000 000
2 Toulouse 000 000
18 Strasbourg 101 040

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentAngersLille
Auxerre 1-3 L 0-2 L
Le Havre 1-1 D 1-1 D
Rennes 1-2 L 2-1 W
Lens 1-5 L 3-0 W
Nice 0-2 L 0-0 D
Record vs common 0 W 1 D 4 L 2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lille (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Angers

WLLDLDLLDD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
17/05 Brest
France Ligue 1
 0-0 1-1 32 D
10/05 Strasbourg
France Ligue 1
 0-1 1-1 04 D
03/05 Auxerre
France Ligue 1
 0-1 1-3 66 L
25/04 PSG
France Ligue 1
 0-2 0-3 52 L
18/04 Le Havre
France Ligue 1
 1-1 1-1 45 D
11/04 Rennes
France Ligue 1
 0-2 1-2 32 L
05/04 Lyon
France Ligue 1
 0-0 0-0 33 D
20/03 Lens
France Ligue 1
 0-3 1-5 30 L
14/03 Nice
France Ligue 1
 0-0 0-2 74 L
07/03 Nantes
France Ligue 1
 0-0 1-0 42 W

Lille

DWWWWDWDWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
17/05 Auxerre
France Ligue 1
 0-1 0-2 45 L
10/05 Monaco
France Ligue 1
 0-0 1-0 24 W
03/05 Le Havre
France Ligue 1
 1-1 1-1 145 D
26/04 Paris FC
France Ligue 1
 1-0 1-0 39 W
18/04 Nice
France Ligue 1
 0-0 0-0 53 D
12/04 Toulouse
France Ligue 1
 1-0 4-0 23 W
04/04 Lens
France Ligue 1
 1-0 3-0 35 W
22/03 Marseille
France Ligue 1
 0-1 2-1 44 W
15/03 Rennes
France Ligue 1
 1-0 2-1 27 W
08/03 Lorient
France Ligue 1
 0-0 1-1 55 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Angers vs Lille?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lille win (55%). Probabilities: Angers 19%, draw 26%, Lille 55%.

How many goals are expected in Angers vs Lille?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Angers 0.86 · Lille 1.65), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Angers vs Lille?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.