Football · Wales Premier League · 18/09, 20:45
Prediction: Connah's Quay vs Cardiff MU
Team pages: Connah's Quay · Cardiff MU
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.13Total
Connah's Quay2.12
Cardiff MU1.01
1X2
Connah's Quay
Draw
Cardiff MU
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Connah's Quay
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Cardiff MU
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Connah's Quay
4–1–1
Cardiff MU
(6 last)
- Cardiff MU0-3Connah's Quay
- Connah's Quay1-1Cardiff MU
- Connah's Quay1-0Cardiff MU
- Cardiff MU2-1Connah's Quay
- Cardiff MU0-3Connah's Quay
- Connah's Quay2-1Cardiff MU
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Connah's Quay 1555 · Cardiff MU 1510
| Connah's Quay | Draw | Cardiff MU | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Connah's Quay (rating 1555 vs 1510).
- H2H favours Connah's Quay: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Connah's Quay | Cardiff MU | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.8 | 2.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.2 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.4 | 2.7 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0 | 3 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Connah's Quay 4–1–1 Cardiff MU
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/25 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Connah's Quay |
| 13/09/25 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Cardiff MU |
| 02/11/24 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cardiff MU |
| 21/09/24 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Connah's Quay |
| 06/04/24 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Connah's Quay |
| 24/02/24 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Cardiff MU |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 25 |
| 2 | Barry Town | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Penybont | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Connah's Quay | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Llandudno | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 16 |
| 7 | Colwyn Bay | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 16 |
| 8 | Cambrian United | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 15 |
| 9 | Cardiff MU | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 14 |
| 10 | Airbus UK | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 7 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 7 |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 3 |
| 14 | Flint Town Utd | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 2 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 2 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Connah's Quay | Cardiff MU |
|---|---|---|
| Airbus UK | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Flint Town Utd | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Cambrian United | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Ammanford AFC | 2-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Holywell Town | 3-1 W | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Connah's Quay (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Connah's Quay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 04/09 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/08 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 14/08 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
Cardiff MU
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 04/09 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 31/08 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 03/04 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Connah's Quay vs Cardiff MU?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Connah's Quay win (62%). Probabilities: Connah's Quay 62%, draw 22%, Cardiff MU 16%.
How many goals are expected in Connah's Quay vs Cardiff MU?
The model expects 3.13 goals (Connah's Quay 2.12 · Cardiff MU 1.01), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Connah's Quay vs Cardiff MU?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.