Football · Wales Premier League · 26/09, 15:30
Prediction: Barry Town vs Connah's Quay
Team pages: Barry Town · Connah's Quay
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Barry Town1.22
Connah's Quay1.57
1X2
Barry Town
Draw
Connah's Quay
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Barry Town
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Connah's Quay
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Barry Town
2–2–2
Connah's Quay
(6 last)
- Connah's Quay1-1Barry Town
- Barry Town1-0Connah's Quay
- Connah's Quay3-1Barry Town
- Barry Town0-0Connah's Quay
- Connah's Quay0-2Barry Town
- Barry Town0-2Connah's Quay
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barry Town 1557 · Connah's Quay 1562
| Barry Town | Draw | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barry Town | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.6 | 2.3 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 70/30/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 3 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barry Town 2–2–2 Connah's Quay
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Barry Town |
| 21/02/26 Wales Premier League | Barry Town | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Connah's Quay |
| 03/01/26 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Barry Town |
| 27/09/25 Wales Premier League | Barry Town | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Connah's Quay |
| 13/04/25 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Barry Town |
| 22/02/25 Wales Premier League | Barry Town | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Connah's Quay |
Standings · Wales Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 4 | 28 |
| 2 | Penybont | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 8 | 24 |
| 3 | Caernarfon Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Connah's Quay | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Barry Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 16 | 22 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | Llandudno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 16 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 10 | Cardiff MU | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 14 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 10 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 8 |
| 13 | Trefelin BGC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 3 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 3 |
| 15 | Flint Town Utd | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 24 | 2 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 1 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barry Town | Connah's Quay |
|---|---|---|
| Colwyn Bay | 2-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Ammanford AFC | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Airbus UK | 4-2 W | 3-0 W |
| Holywell Town | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Cardiff MU | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Flint Town Utd | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Cambrian United | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 6 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Connah's Quay (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barry Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 15/09 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 11/09 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 05/09 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 21/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 07/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 31/07 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Connah's Quay
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 15/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 04/09 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/08 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 14/08 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barry Town vs Connah's Quay?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Connah's Quay win (45%). Probabilities: Barry Town 29%, draw 27%, Connah's Quay 45%.
How many goals are expected in Barry Town vs Connah's Quay?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Barry Town 1.22 · Connah's Quay 1.57), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Barry Town vs Connah's Quay?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.