Football · Wales Premier League · 26/09, 15:30

Prediction: Penybont vs Airbus UK

Team pages: Penybont · Airbus UK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Penybont2

Airbus UK0.97

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Penybont Draw Airbus UK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Penybont 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWDDWWWW

Airbus UK 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWLLW

Head-to-head

Penybont 5–0 Airbus UK (5 last)

Penybont2-0Airbus UK
Airbus UK0-3Penybont
Airbus UK1-2Penybont
Penybont3-1Airbus UK
Penybont4-1Airbus UK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Penybont 1590 · Airbus UK 1501

	Penybont	Draw	Airbus UK
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penybont (rating 1590 vs 1501).
H2H favours Penybont: 5-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Penybont	Airbus UK
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	1.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:10 +3’	1.48	4.00	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Penybont 5–0–0 Airbus UK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/01/23 Wales Premier League	Penybont	2-0 HT 0-0	Airbus UK
15/10/22 Wales Premier League	Airbus UK	0-3 HT 0-1	Penybont
09/11/19 Wales Premier League	Airbus UK	1-2 HT 1-1	Penybont
21/09/19 Wales Premier League	Penybont	3-1 HT 1-0	Airbus UK
03/12/16 Wales Cup	Penybont	4-1 HT 2-1	Airbus UK

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	10	9	1	0	26	4	28
2	Penybont	10	7	3	0	20	8	24
3	Caernarfon Town	10	7	1	2	33	11	22
4	Connah's Quay	10	7	1	2	23	7	22
5	Barry Town	10	7	1	2	25	16	22
6	Colwyn Bay	10	6	1	3	20	14	19
7	Llandudno	10	5	1	4	18	14	16
8	Airbus UK	10	5	0	5	17	15	15
9	Cambrian United	10	4	3	3	17	20	15
10	Cardiff MU	9	4	2	3	19	11	14
11	Haverfordwest County	9	3	1	5	7	14	10
12	Briton Ferry	10	2	2	6	9	19	8
13	Trefelin BGC	10	0	3	7	4	24	3
14	Ammanford AFC	10	0	3	7	7	28	3
15	Flint Town Utd	10	0	2	8	8	24	2
16	Holywell Town	10	0	1	9	11	35	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Penybont	Airbus UK
Ammanford AFC	5-1 W	2-0 W
Briton Ferry	3-2 W	2-0 W
Colwyn Bay	1-0 W	0-1 L
Flint Town Utd	1-1 D	4-1 W
Haverfordwest County	3-0 W	1-0 W
T.N.S.	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Penybont (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Penybont

DWWWDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	4-0	5-1	3	1	W
15/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	3-1	3-2	1	5	W
11/09	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	11	7	W
05/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
31/08	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
28/08	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	7	7	D
21/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
14/08	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
07/08	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
02/08	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D

Airbus UK

WLWLLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	3-0	4-1	6	4	W
15/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	0-3	0	4	L
11/09	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
04/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
31/08	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	3-1	6-2	0	0	W
28/08	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-1	2-4	4	6	L
21/08	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
14/08	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
07/08	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
01/08	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Penybont vs Airbus UK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Penybont win (60%). Probabilities: Penybont 60%, draw 23%, Airbus UK 17%.

How many goals are expected in Penybont vs Airbus UK?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Penybont 2 · Airbus UK 0.97), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Penybont vs Airbus UK?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.