Football · Wales Premier League · 26/09, 15:30
Prediction: Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town
Team pages: Cardiff MU · Caernarfon Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.63Total
Cardiff MU1.34
Caernarfon Town2.29
1X2
Cardiff MU
Draw
Caernarfon Town
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Cardiff MU
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Caernarfon Town
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cardiff MU
2–2–2
Caernarfon Town
(6 last)
- Cardiff MU2-4Caernarfon Town
- Caernarfon Town0-3Cardiff MU
- Cardiff MU2-2Caernarfon Town
- Caernarfon Town0-0Cardiff MU
- Caernarfon Town2-1Cardiff MU
- Cardiff MU4-2Caernarfon Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cardiff MU 1520 · Caernarfon Town 1570
| Cardiff MU | Draw | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| Market | 21% | 21% | 58% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caernarfon Town (rating 1520 vs 1570).
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cardiff MU | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.3 | 3.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 1.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 70/0/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.1 | 2.8 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.7 | 3.1 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff MU 2–2–2 Caernarfon Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/25 Wales Cup | Cardiff MU | 2-4 HT 1-1 | Caernarfon Town |
| 28/09/25 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Cardiff MU |
| 09/08/25 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Caernarfon Town |
| 11/05/25 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cardiff MU |
| 19/04/25 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Cardiff MU |
| 08/03/25 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Caernarfon Town |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 4 | 28 |
| 2 | Penybont | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 8 | 24 |
| 3 | Caernarfon Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Connah's Quay | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Barry Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 16 | 22 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | Llandudno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 16 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 10 | Cardiff MU | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 14 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 10 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 8 |
| 13 | Trefelin BGC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 3 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 3 |
| 15 | Flint Town Utd | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 24 | 2 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cardiff MU | Caernarfon Town |
|---|---|---|
| Connah's Quay | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Flint Town Utd | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Cambrian United | 2-2 D | 9-1 W |
| Ammanford AFC | 5-0 W | 5-0 W |
| T.N.S. | 0-5 L | 2-3 L |
| Holywell Town | 6-1 W | 5-3 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Caernarfon Town (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cardiff MU
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 11/09 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 04/09 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 31/08 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
Caernarfon Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 9-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 15/09 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 11/09 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 04/09 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 21/08 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 07/08 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Caernarfon Town win (58%). Probabilities: Cardiff MU 21%, draw 21%, Caernarfon Town 58%.
How many goals are expected in Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town?
The model expects 3.63 goals (Cardiff MU 1.34 · Caernarfon Town 2.29), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.