Football · Wales Premier League · 26/09, 15:30

Prediction: Trefelin BGC vs T.N.S.

Team pages: Trefelin BGC · T.N.S.

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Trefelin BGC0.84

T.N.S.2.84

1X2

5% 10% 84%

Trefelin BGC Draw T.N.S.

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Trefelin BGC 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLDLLD

T.N.S. 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trefelin BGC 1404 · T.N.S. 1616

	Trefelin BGC	Draw	T.N.S.
Our model	8%	14%	78%
Market	4%	7%	89%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours T.N.S. (rating 1404 vs 1616).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trefelin BGC	T.N.S.
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.4	2.6 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.6	4.8 / 8.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

126.00

X13.00

21.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.25)1.80

2 (-3.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	26.00 → 26.00	Bet365 26.00
X	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
2	1.05 → 1.05	Bet365 1.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:09 +4’	26.00	13.00	1.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	10	9	1	0	26	4	28
2	Penybont	10	7	3	0	20	8	24
3	Caernarfon Town	10	7	1	2	33	11	22
4	Connah's Quay	10	7	1	2	23	7	22
5	Barry Town	10	7	1	2	25	16	22
6	Colwyn Bay	10	6	1	3	20	14	19
7	Llandudno	10	5	1	4	18	14	16
8	Airbus UK	10	5	0	5	17	15	15
9	Cambrian United	10	4	3	3	17	20	15
10	Cardiff MU	9	4	2	3	19	11	14
11	Haverfordwest County	9	3	1	5	7	14	10
12	Briton Ferry	10	2	2	6	9	19	8
13	Trefelin BGC	10	0	3	7	4	24	3
14	Ammanford AFC	10	0	3	7	7	28	3
15	Flint Town Utd	10	0	2	8	8	24	2
16	Holywell Town	10	0	1	9	11	35	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trefelin BGC	T.N.S.
Briton Ferry	1-1 D	1-0 W
Penybont	0-1 L	0-0 D
Haverfordwest County	1-2 L	2-0 W
Caernarfon Town	0-2 L	3-2 W
Llandudno	0-4 L	2-1 W
Colwyn Bay	0-2 L	5-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: T.N.S. (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trefelin BGC

LLLLDLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
15/09	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	2	L
11/09	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
04/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
31/08	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	1	L
28/08	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	8	9	D
21/08	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
14/08	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-2	0-6	4	4	L
07/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-4	0-4	2	4	L
31/07	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-2	0-2	2	4	L

T.N.S.

DWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	11	7	W
15/09	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	3-0	5-0	18	1	W
11/09	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
05/09	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
28/08	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	3-0	5-1	6	2	W
21/08	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	1-0	5-0	8	4	W
14/08	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
07/08	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	1	W
02/08	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trefelin BGC vs T.N.S.?

According to our model, the most likely result is an T.N.S. win (84%). Probabilities: Trefelin BGC 5%, draw 10%, T.N.S. 84%.

How many goals are expected in Trefelin BGC vs T.N.S.?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Trefelin BGC 0.84 · T.N.S. 2.84), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Trefelin BGC vs T.N.S.?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.