Football · Wales Premier League · 07/08, 20:45
Prediction: Airbus UK vs Cardiff MU
Team pages: Airbus UK · Cardiff MU
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Airbus UK1.38
Cardiff MU1.54
1X2
Airbus UK
Draw
Cardiff MU
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Airbus UK
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Cardiff MU
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Airbus UK
0–2–4
Cardiff MU
(6 last)
- Cardiff MU3-1Airbus UK
- Airbus UK0-2Cardiff MU
- Cardiff MU1-1Airbus UK
- Airbus UK1-1Cardiff MU
- Cardiff MU1-0Airbus UK
- Cardiff MU2-0Airbus UK
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Airbus UK 1619 · Cardiff MU 1550
| Airbus UK | Draw | Cardiff MU | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 31% | 30% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Airbus UK (rating 1619 vs 1550).
- H2H favours Cardiff MU: 4-2-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Airbus UK | Cardiff MU | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 0.8 | 2.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.1 | 2.2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.3 | 2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Airbus UK 0–2–4 Cardiff MU
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/23 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Airbus UK |
| 07/01/23 Wales Premier League | Airbus UK | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Cardiff MU |
| 22/02/20 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Airbus UK |
| 05/10/19 Wales Premier League | Airbus UK | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Cardiff MU |
| 26/08/19 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Airbus UK |
| 13/11/16 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Airbus UK |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff MU | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Colwyn Bay | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Llandudno | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Barry Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Briton Ferry | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Penybont | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | T.N.S. | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Flint Town Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | Ammanford AFC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Cambrian United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Connah's Quay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Airbus UK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 17/07 | Denbigh Town UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 30/06 | Mold Alexandra UK Friendlies |
2-2 | 4-3 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 18/04 | Llandudno Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 03/04 | Holywell Town Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/03 | Guilsfield Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/03 | Denbigh Town Wales Championship North |
0-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 13/03 | Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North |
3-0 | 8-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/03 | Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North |
2-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 07/03 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
Cardiff MU
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/07 | Ebbsfleet United UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 18/07 | Brackley UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 07/07 | Carmarthen UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Afan Lido UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/06 | Pontardawe Town UK Friendlies |
4-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/04 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 03/04 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Bala Town Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | Llanelli Town Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Airbus UK vs Cardiff MU?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cardiff MU win (39%). Probabilities: Airbus UK 32%, draw 29%, Cardiff MU 39%.
How many goals are expected in Airbus UK vs Cardiff MU?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Airbus UK 1.38 · Cardiff MU 1.54), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Airbus UK vs Cardiff MU?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.