Football · Wales Premier League · 15/08, 18:15
Prediction: Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay
Team pages: Caernarfon Town · Colwyn Bay
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.01Total
Caernarfon Town1.7
Colwyn Bay1.31
1X2
Caernarfon Town
Draw
Colwyn Bay
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 65%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Caernarfon Town
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Colwyn Bay
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caernarfon Town
4–2
Colwyn Bay
(6 last)
- Colwyn Bay0-2Caernarfon Town
- Caernarfon Town3-0Colwyn Bay
- Caernarfon Town4-1Colwyn Bay
- Caernarfon Town1-2Colwyn Bay
- Colwyn Bay1-0Caernarfon Town
- Caernarfon Town3-0Colwyn Bay
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caernarfon Town 1500 · Colwyn Bay 1495
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Colwyn Bay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 46% | 25% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Caernarfon Town: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caernarfon Town | Colwyn Bay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.3 | 3.7 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.2 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caernarfon Town 4–0–2 Colwyn Bay
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Wales Premier League | Colwyn Bay | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Caernarfon Town |
| 27/02/26 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Colwyn Bay |
| 31/01/26 Wales Cup | Caernarfon Town | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Colwyn Bay |
| 27/12/25 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Colwyn Bay |
| 04/10/25 Wales Premier League | Colwyn Bay | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Caernarfon Town |
| 01/08/25 Wales League Cup | Caernarfon Town | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Colwyn Bay |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff MU | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Llandudno | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Barry Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Colwyn Bay | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | T.N.S. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Briton Ferry | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Penybont | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Connah's Quay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Caernarfon Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Airbus UK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Ammanford AFC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 12 | Cambrian United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caernarfon Town | Colwyn Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Penybont | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Connah's Quay | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caernarfon Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/07 | FC Levadia Tallinn UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-3 | 0-5 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 09/07 | FC Levadia Tallinn UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/06 | Glentoran Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 18/04 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Flint Town Utd Wales Cup |
3-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 03/04 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/03 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 21/03 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
Colwyn Bay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 31/07 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 14/07 | Marine UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Altrincham UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 06/07 | Rhyl UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 03/07 | Denbigh Town UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Bala Town UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 03/04 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caernarfon Town win (46%). Probabilities: Caernarfon Town 46%, draw 26%, Colwyn Bay 29%.
How many goals are expected in Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay?
The model expects 3.01 goals (Caernarfon Town 1.7 · Colwyn Bay 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.