Football · Wales Premier League · 15/08, 13:30
Prediction: Barry Town vs Cardiff MU
Team pages: Barry Town · Cardiff MU
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.73Total
Barry Town1.44
Cardiff MU1.29
1X2
Barry Town
Draw
Cardiff MU
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Barry Town
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Cardiff MU
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Barry Town
2–3–1
Cardiff MU
(6 last)
- Barry Town1-0Cardiff MU
- Cardiff MU1-1Barry Town
- Barry Town2-1Cardiff MU
- Cardiff MU1-1Barry Town
- Barry Town0-0Cardiff MU
- Cardiff MU2-1Barry Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barry Town 1564 · Cardiff MU 1560
| Barry Town | Draw | Cardiff MU | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Barry Town: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barry Town | Cardiff MU | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 2.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.2 | 2.1 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 1.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barry Town 2–3–1 Cardiff MU
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/25 Wales Premier League | Barry Town | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cardiff MU |
| 25/08/25 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Barry Town |
| 10/12/24 Wales Premier League | Barry Town | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Cardiff MU |
| 16/08/24 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Barry Town |
| 30/12/23 Wales Premier League | Barry Town | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cardiff MU |
| 06/10/23 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Barry Town |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff MU | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Llandudno | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Barry Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Colwyn Bay | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | T.N.S. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Briton Ferry | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Penybont | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Connah's Quay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Caernarfon Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Airbus UK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Ammanford AFC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 12 | Cambrian United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barry Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 31/07 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Gloucester UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 07/07 | Goytre Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Goytre United Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 03/04 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 29/03 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
Cardiff MU
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/07 | Ebbsfleet United UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 18/07 | Brackley UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 07/07 | Carmarthen UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Afan Lido UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/06 | Pontardawe Town UK Friendlies |
4-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/04 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 03/04 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Bala Town Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barry Town vs Cardiff MU?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Barry Town win (40%). Probabilities: Barry Town 40%, draw 27%, Cardiff MU 33%.
How many goals are expected in Barry Town vs Cardiff MU?
The model expects 2.73 goals (Barry Town 1.44 · Cardiff MU 1.29), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Barry Town vs Cardiff MU?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.