Football · Wales Premier League · 14/08, 20:45
Prediction: Haverfordwest County vs Penybont
Team pages: Haverfordwest County · Penybont
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.29Total
Haverfordwest County0.97
Penybont1.32
1X2
Haverfordwest County
Draw
Penybont
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Haverfordwest County
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Penybont
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Haverfordwest County
0–1–5
Penybont
(6 last)
- Penybont2-0Haverfordwest County
- Penybont2-1Haverfordwest County
- Haverfordwest County0-1Penybont
- Haverfordwest County1-2Penybont
- Penybont0-0Haverfordwest County
- Penybont1-0Haverfordwest County
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Haverfordwest County 1505 · Penybont 1491
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 30% | 43% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Penybont: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Haverfordwest County | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.9 | 1.6 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Haverfordwest County 0–1–5 Penybont
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Haverfordwest County |
| 07/10/25 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Haverfordwest County |
| 08/08/25 Wales Premier League | Haverfordwest County | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Penybont |
| 21/03/25 Wales Premier League | Haverfordwest County | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Penybont |
| 01/02/25 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Haverfordwest County |
| 03/12/24 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Haverfordwest County |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff MU | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Llandudno | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Barry Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Colwyn Bay | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | T.N.S. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Briton Ferry | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Penybont | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Connah's Quay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Caernarfon Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Airbus UK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Ammanford AFC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 12 | Cambrian United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Haverfordwest County | Penybont |
|---|---|---|
| T.N.S. | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Barry Town | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Haverfordwest County
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Llanelli Town UK Friendlies |
6-0 | 8-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Gloucester UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Hamilton UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | Llanelli Town Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 03/04 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 28/03 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Penybont
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 16/07 | FC Santa Coloma UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/07 | FC Santa Coloma UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/06 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/04 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Haverfordwest County vs Penybont?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Penybont win (45%). Probabilities: Haverfordwest County 27%, draw 28%, Penybont 45%.
How many goals are expected in Haverfordwest County vs Penybont?
The model expects 2.29 goals (Haverfordwest County 0.97 · Penybont 1.32), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Haverfordwest County vs Penybont?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.