Football · Wales Premier League · 31/08, 16:00

Prediction: Caernarfon Town vs T.N.S.

Team pages: Caernarfon Town · T.N.S.

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Caernarfon Town1.04

T.N.S.2.04

1X2

18% 22% 60%

Caernarfon Town Draw T.N.S.

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Caernarfon Town 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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T.N.S. 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Caernarfon Town 0–6 T.N.S. (6 last)

Caernarfon Town0-4T.N.S.
T.N.S.2-1Caernarfon Town
T.N.S.2-0Caernarfon Town
T.N.S.3-0Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town1-3T.N.S.
T.N.S.2-0Caernarfon Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caernarfon Town 1508 · T.N.S. 1605

	Caernarfon Town	Draw	T.N.S.
Our model	18%	23%	60%
Market	18%	22%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours T.N.S. (rating 1508 vs 1605).
H2H favours T.N.S.: 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caernarfon Town	T.N.S.
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	2.2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	3.8 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.10

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.95

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.55 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.30
2	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +5’	5.00	4.10	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:59 +7’	5.55	4.30	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Caernarfon Town 0–0–6 T.N.S.

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/03/26 Wales Premier League	Caernarfon Town	0-4 HT 0-2	T.N.S.
20/02/26 Wales Premier League	T.N.S.	2-1 HT 1-1	Caernarfon Town
28/11/25 Wales Premier League	T.N.S.	2-0 HT 0-0	Caernarfon Town
04/11/25 Wales League Cup	T.N.S.	3-0 HT 0-0	Caernarfon Town
07/10/25 Wales Premier League	Caernarfon Town	1-3 HT 0-2	T.N.S.
11/03/25 Wales Premier League	T.N.S.	2-0 HT 1-0	Caernarfon Town

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barry Town	4	4	0	0	9	4	12
2	T.N.S.	4	3	1	0	8	0	10
3	Penybont	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
4	Connah's Quay	4	3	0	1	12	3	9
5	Llandudno	4	3	0	1	11	5	9
6	Caernarfon Town	4	3	0	1	8	3	9
7	Cambrian United	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
8	Briton Ferry	4	2	1	1	4	3	7
9	Colwyn Bay	4	2	1	1	5	5	7
10	Cardiff MU	4	2	0	2	8	7	6
11	Airbus UK	4	2	0	2	3	3	6
12	Ammanford AFC	4	0	1	3	3	8	1
13	Flint Town Utd	4	0	0	4	4	8	0
14	Haverfordwest County	4	0	0	4	0	9	0
15	Holywell Town	4	0	0	4	4	15	0
16	Trefelin BGC	4	0	0	4	0	14	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caernarfon Town	T.N.S.
Colwyn Bay	3-0 W	5-1 W
Penybont	1-2 L	0-0 D
Connah's Quay	2-1 W	2-1 W
Barry Town	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: T.N.S. (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caernarfon Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	3-1	5-3	–	–	W
21/08	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
15/08	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
07/08	Penybont Wales Premier League	1-2	1-2	3	3	L
02/08	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
18/04	Penybont Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
03/04	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
27/03	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
21/03	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
13/03	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	1-2	2-4	7	6	L

T.N.S.

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	3-0	5-1	6	2	W
21/08	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	1-0	5-0	8	4	W
14/08	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
07/08	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	1	W
02/08	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
18/04	Barry Town Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
03/04	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	12	5	W
27/03	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
20/03	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
14/03	Penybont Wales Premier League	1-1	2-1	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caernarfon Town vs T.N.S.?

According to our model, the most likely result is an T.N.S. win (60%). Probabilities: Caernarfon Town 18%, draw 22%, T.N.S. 60%.

How many goals are expected in Caernarfon Town vs T.N.S.?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Caernarfon Town 1.04 · T.N.S. 2.04), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Caernarfon Town vs T.N.S.?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.