Football · Wales Premier League · 04/09, 20:45
Prediction: Caernarfon Town vs Flint Town Utd
Team pages: Caernarfon Town · Flint Town Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
Caernarfon Town2.17
Flint Town Utd0.98
1X2
Caernarfon Town
Draw
Flint Town Utd
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Caernarfon Town
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Flint Town Utd
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caernarfon Town
5–1–0
Flint Town Utd
(6 last)
- Caernarfon Town3-0Flint Town Utd
- Caernarfon Town1-1Flint Town Utd
- Flint Town Utd2-5Caernarfon Town
- Caernarfon Town3-0Flint Town Utd
- Flint Town Utd1-2Caernarfon Town
- Flint Town Utd2-3Caernarfon Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caernarfon Town 1523 · Flint Town Utd 1423
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Flint Town Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 21% | 15% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caernarfon Town (rating 1523 vs 1423).
- H2H favours Caernarfon Town: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caernarfon Town | Flint Town Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.2 | 2.8 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caernarfon Town 5–1–0 Flint Town Utd
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Wales Cup | Caernarfon Town | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Flint Town Utd |
| 05/12/25 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Flint Town Utd |
| 22/08/25 Wales Premier League | Flint Town Utd | 2-5 HT 2-2 | Caernarfon Town |
| 14/01/25 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Flint Town Utd |
| 25/09/24 Wales Premier League | Flint Town Utd | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Caernarfon Town |
| 19/04/23 Wales Premier League | Flint Town Utd | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Caernarfon Town |
Standings · Wales Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barry Town | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | T.N.S. | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 16 |
| 3 | Connah's Quay | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Cardiff MU | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Llandudno | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Penybont | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Colwyn Bay | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 9 | Airbus UK | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 10 | Cambrian United | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 7 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 3 |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 2 |
| 14 | Flint Town Utd | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 1 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caernarfon Town | Flint Town Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Penybont | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Connah's Quay | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Barry Town | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caernarfon Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 21/08 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 07/08 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/03 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 21/03 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
Flint Town Utd
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 28/08 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 21/08 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 14/08 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 31/07 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 03/04 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Llanelli Town Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caernarfon Town vs Flint Town Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caernarfon Town win (64%). Probabilities: Caernarfon Town 64%, draw 21%, Flint Town Utd 15%.
How many goals are expected in Caernarfon Town vs Flint Town Utd?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Caernarfon Town 2.17 · Flint Town Utd 0.98), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Caernarfon Town vs Flint Town Utd?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.