Football · Wales Premier League · 04/09, 20:45

Prediction: Connah's Quay vs Haverfordwest County

Team pages: Connah's Quay · Haverfordwest County

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Connah's Quay2.19

Haverfordwest County0.95

1X2

65% 21% 14%

Connah's Quay Draw Haverfordwest County

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Connah's Quay 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWWWWW

Haverfordwest County 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Connah's Quay 2–2–2 Haverfordwest County (6 last)

Connah's Quay3-3Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County1-3Connah's Quay
Haverfordwest County0-0Connah's Quay
Connah's Quay0-1Haverfordwest County
Connah's Quay1-2Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County1-3Connah's Quay

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Connah's Quay 1568 · Haverfordwest County 1454

	Connah's Quay	Draw	Haverfordwest County
Our model	65%	21%	14%
Market	65%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Connah's Quay (rating 1568 vs 1454).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Connah's Quay	Haverfordwest County
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	1.4 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.33

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:22 +3’	1.38	4.33	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Connah's Quay 2–2–2 Haverfordwest County

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/10/25 Wales Premier League	Connah's Quay	3-3 HT 2-0	Haverfordwest County
20/09/25 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	1-3 HT 1-1	Connah's Quay
12/10/24 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	0-0 HT 0-0	Connah's Quay
11/08/24 Wales Premier League	Connah's Quay	0-1 HT 0-0	Haverfordwest County
19/11/23 Wales Premier League	Connah's Quay	1-2 HT 1-2	Haverfordwest County
23/09/23 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	1-3 HT 0-1	Connah's Quay

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barry Town	6	6	0	0	17	7	18
2	T.N.S.	6	5	1	0	16	3	16
3	Connah's Quay	6	5	0	1	17	4	15
4	Cardiff MU	6	4	0	2	16	7	12
5	Caernarfon Town	6	4	0	2	15	9	12
6	Llandudno	6	4	0	2	13	7	12
7	Penybont	6	3	3	0	10	5	12
8	Colwyn Bay	6	3	1	2	8	10	10
9	Airbus UK	6	3	0	3	11	9	9
10	Cambrian United	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
11	Briton Ferry	6	2	1	3	5	10	7
12	Haverfordwest County	6	1	0	5	2	12	3
13	Ammanford AFC	6	0	2	4	4	14	2
14	Flint Town Utd	6	0	1	5	6	11	1
15	Trefelin BGC	6	0	1	5	2	17	1
16	Holywell Town	6	0	0	6	9	26	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Connah's Quay	Haverfordwest County
Flint Town Utd	2-1 W	1-0 W
Cambrian United	3-0 W	0-3 L
Trefelin BGC	6-0 W	2-1 W
T.N.S.	1-2 L	0-2 L
Barry Town	1-1 D	1-1 D
Penybont	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Connah's Quay (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Connah's Quay

WDLDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
28/08	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
22/08	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
14/08	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	2-0	6-0	8	4	W
07/08	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	3-1	3-1	5	5	W
02/08	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	1-0	1-2	8	3	L
18/04	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
03/04	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
29/03	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
21/03	Penybont Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	0	4	W

Haverfordwest County

WWDLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
28/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-0	0-2	0	8	L
21/08	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	0-0	0-3	2	2	L
14/08	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
07/08	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
01/08	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
02/05	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
26/04	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
18/04	Llanelli Town Wales Premier League	3-0	6-0	8	3	W
03/04	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Connah's Quay vs Haverfordwest County?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Connah's Quay win (65%). Probabilities: Connah's Quay 65%, draw 21%, Haverfordwest County 14%.

How many goals are expected in Connah's Quay vs Haverfordwest County?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Connah's Quay 2.19 · Haverfordwest County 0.95), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Connah's Quay vs Haverfordwest County?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.