Football · Wales Premier League · 31/08, 15:30
Prediction: Flint Town Utd vs Connah's Quay
Team pages: Flint Town Utd · Connah's Quay
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
Flint Town Utd1.05
Connah's Quay1.86
1X2
Flint Town Utd
Draw
Connah's Quay
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Flint Town Utd
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Connah's Quay
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Flint Town Utd
1–5
Connah's Quay
(6 last)
- Flint Town Utd0-2Connah's Quay
- Connah's Quay3-2Flint Town Utd
- Connah's Quay4-0Flint Town Utd
- Flint Town Utd2-1Connah's Quay
- Connah's Quay7-2Flint Town Utd
- Flint Town Utd0-1Connah's Quay
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Flint Town Utd 1421 · Connah's Quay 1570
| Flint Town Utd | Draw | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Connah's Quay (rating 1421 vs 1570).
- H2H favours Connah's Quay: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Flint Town Utd | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.5 | 2.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.6 | 2.1 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Flint Town Utd 1–0–5 Connah's Quay
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/25 Wales Premier League | Flint Town Utd | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Connah's Quay |
| 25/08/25 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Flint Town Utd |
| 11/03/25 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Flint Town Utd |
| 25/01/25 Wales Premier League | Flint Town Utd | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Connah's Quay |
| 26/12/24 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 7-2 HT 6-1 | Flint Town Utd |
| 26/08/24 Wales Premier League | Flint Town Utd | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Connah's Quay |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barry Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | T.N.S. | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Penybont | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Connah's Quay | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Llandudno | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Cambrian United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Briton Ferry | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Colwyn Bay | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Cardiff MU | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 11 | Airbus UK | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Ammanford AFC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 | Holywell Town | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| 16 | Trefelin BGC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Flint Town Utd | Connah's Quay |
|---|---|---|
| Penybont | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Cambrian United | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Barry Town | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Connah's Quay (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Flint Town Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 21/08 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 14/08 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 31/07 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 03/04 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Llanelli Town Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 14/03 | Bala Town Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
Connah's Quay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 14/08 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 03/04 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 29/03 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 21/03 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 13/03 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Flint Town Utd vs Connah's Quay?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Connah's Quay win (55%). Probabilities: Flint Town Utd 20%, draw 24%, Connah's Quay 55%.
How many goals are expected in Flint Town Utd vs Connah's Quay?
The model expects 2.91 goals (Flint Town Utd 1.05 · Connah's Quay 1.86), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Flint Town Utd vs Connah's Quay?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.