Football · Wales Premier League · 03/10, 15:30

Prediction: T.N.S. vs Cambrian United

Team pages: T.N.S. · Cambrian United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.22Total

T.N.S.3.11

Cambrian United1.11

1X2

80% 12% 8%

T.N.S. Draw Cambrian United

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

T.N.S. 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Cambrian United 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLDDWWLW

Head-to-head

T.N.S. 1–1–0 Cambrian United (2 last)

Cambrian United0-5T.N.S.
Cambrian United0-0T.N.S.

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · T.N.S. 1622 · Cambrian United 1531

	T.N.S.	Draw	Cambrian United
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	84%	10%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 4.22 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours T.N.S. (rating 1622 vs 1531).
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	T.N.S.	Cambrian United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.5	2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.8 / 8.3	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.08

X9.00

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.75)1.85

2 (+2.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.08	Bet365 1.08
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:27 +5’	1.08	9.00	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · T.N.S. 1–1–0 Cambrian United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/25 Wales Cup	Cambrian United	0-5 HT 0-5	T.N.S.
23/11/18 Wales League Cup	Cambrian United	0-0 HT 0-0	T.N.S.

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	11	10	1	0	29	5	31
2	Penybont	11	8	3	0	22	9	27
3	Connah's Quay	11	8	1	2	27	8	25
4	Caernarfon Town	11	7	2	2	35	13	23
5	Colwyn Bay	11	7	1	3	21	14	22
6	Barry Town	11	7	1	3	26	20	22
7	Cambrian United	11	5	3	3	21	23	18
8	Llandudno	11	5	1	5	21	18	16
9	Cardiff MU	10	4	3	3	21	13	15
10	Airbus UK	11	5	0	6	18	17	15
11	Haverfordwest County	10	3	1	6	7	15	10
12	Briton Ferry	11	2	3	6	10	20	9
13	Flint Town Utd	11	1	2	8	11	24	5
14	Trefelin BGC	11	0	3	8	5	27	3
15	Ammanford AFC	11	0	3	8	7	31	3
16	Holywell Town	11	0	2	9	12	36	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	T.N.S.	Cambrian United
Trefelin BGC	3-1 W	4-0 W
Llandudno	2-1 W	4-3 W
Flint Town Utd	5-0 W	1-0 W
Caernarfon Town	3-2 W	1-9 L
Cardiff MU	5-0 W	2-2 D
Briton Ferry	1-0 W	1-1 D
Haverfordwest County	2-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: T.N.S. (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

T.N.S.

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
19/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	11	7	W
15/09	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	3-0	5-0	18	1	W
11/09	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
05/09	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
28/08	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	3-0	5-1	6	2	W
21/08	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	1-0	5-0	8	4	W
14/08	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
07/08	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	1	W

Cambrian United

DWWLDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	3-0	4-3	2	4	W
18/09	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	1-3	1-9	6	6	L
15/09	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	1-0	4-0	9	2	W
11/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
04/09	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
31/08	Penybont Wales Premier League	1-1	2-2	2	9	D
28/08	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
21/08	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	2	W
14/08	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
07/08	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in T.N.S. vs Cambrian United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a T.N.S. win (80%). Probabilities: T.N.S. 80%, draw 12%, Cambrian United 8%.

How many goals are expected in T.N.S. vs Cambrian United?

The model expects 4.22 goals (T.N.S. 3.11 · Cambrian United 1.11), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in T.N.S. vs Cambrian United?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.