Football · Wales Premier League · 03/10, 15:30
Prediction: Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town
Team pages: Caernarfon Town · Barry Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.85Total
Caernarfon Town2.53
Barry Town1.32
1X2
Caernarfon Town
Draw
Barry Town
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Caernarfon Town
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Barry Town
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caernarfon Town
3–1–2
Barry Town
(6 last)
- Barry Town2-1Caernarfon Town
- Caernarfon Town0-2Barry Town
- Barry Town2-2Caernarfon Town
- Caernarfon Town3-1Barry Town
- Caernarfon Town5-2Barry Town
- Caernarfon Town3-2Barry Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caernarfon Town 1544 · Barry Town 1547
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Barry Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Caernarfon Town: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caernarfon Town | Barry Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 1.2 | 2.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/0/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.8 | 2.4 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.7 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caernarfon Town 3–1–2 Barry Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Wales Premier League | Barry Town | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Caernarfon Town |
| 14/02/26 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Barry Town |
| 11/10/25 Wales Premier League | Barry Town | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Caernarfon Town |
| 07/09/25 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Barry Town |
| 26/04/25 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 5-2 HT 2-1 | Barry Town |
| 14/12/24 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Barry Town |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 5 | 31 |
| 2 | Penybont | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Connah's Quay | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 22 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 20 | 22 |
| 7 | Cambrian United | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 23 | 18 |
| 8 | Llandudno | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 16 |
| 9 | Cardiff MU | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 15 |
| 10 | Airbus UK | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 15 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 10 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 9 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 5 |
| 14 | Trefelin BGC | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 27 | 3 |
| 15 | Ammanford AFC | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 3 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 36 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caernarfon Town | Barry Town |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MU | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Llandudno | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Ammanford AFC | 5-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Flint Town Utd | 3-0 W | 3-2 W |
| T.N.S. | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Holywell Town | 5-3 W | 3-1 W |
| Colwyn Bay | 3-0 W | 2-5 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Caernarfon Town (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caernarfon Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 18/09 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 9-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 15/09 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 11/09 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 04/09 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 21/08 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 07/08 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
Barry Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 18/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 15/09 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 11/09 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 05/09 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 21/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 07/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caernarfon Town win (62%). Probabilities: Caernarfon Town 62%, draw 20%, Barry Town 17%.
How many goals are expected in Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town?
The model expects 3.85 goals (Caernarfon Town 2.53 · Barry Town 1.32), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.