Football · Wales Premier League · 03/10, 15:30
Prediction: Connah's Quay vs Penybont
Team pages: Connah's Quay · Penybont
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
Connah's Quay1.57
Penybont1.1
1X2
Connah's Quay
Draw
Penybont
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Connah's Quay
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Penybont
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Connah's Quay
3–1–2
Penybont
(6 last)
- Connah's Quay2-1Penybont
- Penybont0-0Connah's Quay
- Connah's Quay4-0Penybont
- Penybont0-1Connah's Quay
- Penybont1-0Connah's Quay
- Connah's Quay0-1Penybont
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Connah's Quay 1609 · Penybont 1574
| Connah's Quay | Draw | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Connah's Quay: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Connah's Quay | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 0.6 | 2.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.1 | 1.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.5 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Connah's Quay 3–1–2 Penybont
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Penybont |
| 14/02/26 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Connah's Quay |
| 08/11/25 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Penybont |
| 30/08/25 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Connah's Quay |
| 04/01/25 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Connah's Quay |
| 15/09/24 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Penybont |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 5 | 31 |
| 2 | Penybont | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Connah's Quay | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 22 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 20 | 22 |
| 7 | Cambrian United | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 23 | 18 |
| 8 | Llandudno | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 16 |
| 9 | Cardiff MU | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 15 |
| 10 | Airbus UK | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 15 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 10 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 9 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 5 |
| 14 | Trefelin BGC | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 27 | 3 |
| 15 | Ammanford AFC | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 3 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 36 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Connah's Quay | Penybont |
|---|---|---|
| Airbus UK | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Colwyn Bay | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Haverfordwest County | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Flint Town Utd | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Cambrian United | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Ammanford AFC | 2-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Trefelin BGC | 6-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 5 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Connah's Quay (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Connah's Quay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/09 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 15/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 04/09 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/08 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 14/08 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Penybont
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 18/09 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
4-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 15/09 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 11/09 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 28/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 21/08 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 14/08 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 07/08 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Connah's Quay win (47%). Probabilities: Connah's Quay 47%, draw 27%, Penybont 26%.
How many goals are expected in Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
The model expects 2.67 goals (Connah's Quay 1.57 · Penybont 1.1), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.