Football · Wales Premier League · 03/10, 15:30

Prediction: Airbus UK vs Trefelin BGC

Team pages: Airbus UK · Trefelin BGC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Airbus UK2.18

Trefelin BGC1.07

1X2

62% 21% 17%

Airbus UK Draw Trefelin BGC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Airbus UK 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Trefelin BGC 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDLLDL

Head-to-head

Airbus UK 1–0 Trefelin BGC (1 last)

Airbus UK2-1Trefelin BGC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Airbus UK 1494 · Trefelin BGC 1403

	Airbus UK	Draw	Trefelin BGC
Our model	62%	22%	17%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Airbus UK (rating 1494 vs 1403).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Airbus UK	Trefelin BGC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	0.5 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.4	0.9 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +3’	1.44	4.33	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Airbus UK 1–0–0 Trefelin BGC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/11/22 Wales Cup	Airbus UK	2-1 HT 0-1	Trefelin BGC

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	11	10	1	0	29	5	31
2	Penybont	11	8	3	0	22	9	27
3	Connah's Quay	11	8	1	2	27	8	25
4	Caernarfon Town	11	7	2	2	35	13	23
5	Colwyn Bay	11	7	1	3	21	14	22
6	Barry Town	11	7	1	3	26	20	22
7	Cambrian United	11	5	3	3	21	23	18
8	Llandudno	11	5	1	5	21	18	16
9	Cardiff MU	10	4	3	3	21	13	15
10	Airbus UK	11	5	0	6	18	17	15
11	Haverfordwest County	10	3	1	6	7	15	10
12	Briton Ferry	11	2	3	6	10	20	9
13	Flint Town Utd	11	1	2	8	11	24	5
14	Trefelin BGC	11	0	3	8	5	27	3
15	Ammanford AFC	11	0	3	8	7	31	3
16	Holywell Town	11	0	2	9	12	36	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Airbus UK	Trefelin BGC
Penybont	1-2 L	0-1 L
Connah's Quay	0-3 L	0-6 L
T.N.S.	0-2 L	1-3 L
Briton Ferry	2-0 W	1-1 D
Holywell Town	6-2 W	1-1 D
Ammanford AFC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Airbus UK (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Airbus UK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Penybont Wales Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
18/09	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	3-0	4-1	6	4	W
15/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	0-3	0	4	L
11/09	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
04/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
31/08	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	3-1	6-2	0	0	W
28/08	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-1	2-4	4	6	L
21/08	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
14/08	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
07/08	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	3	L

Trefelin BGC

LLLDLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	1-2	1-3	1	2	L
18/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
15/09	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	2	L
11/09	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
04/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
31/08	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	1	L
28/08	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	8	9	D
21/08	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
14/08	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-2	0-6	4	4	L
07/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-4	0-4	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Airbus UK vs Trefelin BGC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Airbus UK win (62%). Probabilities: Airbus UK 62%, draw 21%, Trefelin BGC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Airbus UK vs Trefelin BGC?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Airbus UK 2.18 · Trefelin BGC 1.07), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Airbus UK vs Trefelin BGC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.