Football · Wales Premier League · 09/10, 20:45

Prediction: Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town

Team pages: Haverfordwest County · Caernarfon Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Haverfordwest County1.09

Caernarfon Town1.99

1X2

20% 23% 57%

Haverfordwest County Draw Caernarfon Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Haverfordwest County 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWWLLL

Caernarfon Town 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDWDL

Head-to-head

Haverfordwest County 1–5–0 Caernarfon Town (6 last)

Caernarfon Town2-2Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County1-1Caernarfon Town
Haverfordwest County3-1Caernarfon Town
Haverfordwest County1-1Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town1-1Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County0-0Caernarfon Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Haverfordwest County 1453 · Caernarfon Town 1556

	Haverfordwest County	Draw	Caernarfon Town
Our model	19%	24%	57%
Market	20%	23%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caernarfon Town (rating 1453 vs 1556).
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Haverfordwest County	Caernarfon Town
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	3.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.2	1.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	70/0/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	3.1 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.90

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:51 +3’	4.50	3.90	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Haverfordwest County 1–5–0 Caernarfon Town

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/11/25 Wales Premier League	Caernarfon Town	2-2 HT 0-0	Haverfordwest County
30/08/25 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	1-1 HT 1-0	Caernarfon Town
18/05/25 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	3-1 HT 2-0	Caernarfon Town
29/03/25 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	1-1 HT 0-0	Caernarfon Town
08/02/25 Wales Premier League	Caernarfon Town	1-1 HT 1-1	Haverfordwest County
26/10/24 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	0-0 HT 0-0	Caernarfon Town

Standings · Wales Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	12	11	1	0	38	5	34
2	Connah's Quay	12	9	1	2	28	8	28
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22	10	27
4	Barry Town	12	8	1	3	27	20	25
5	Caernarfon Town	12	7	2	3	35	14	23
6	Colwyn Bay	12	7	1	4	21	15	22
7	Cardiff MU	12	6	3	3	23	13	21
8	Airbus UK	12	6	0	6	21	17	18
9	Cambrian United	12	5	3	4	21	32	18
10	Llandudno	12	5	1	6	21	19	16
11	Briton Ferry	12	3	3	6	11	20	12
12	Haverfordwest County	12	3	1	8	7	17	10
13	Flint Town Utd	12	2	2	8	12	24	8
14	Ammanford AFC	12	1	3	8	9	32	6
15	Trefelin BGC	12	0	3	9	5	30	3
16	Holywell Town	12	0	2	10	13	38	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Haverfordwest County	Caernarfon Town
Flint Town Utd	0-1 L	3-0 W
Cardiff MU	0-1 L	2-2 D
Colwyn Bay	0-1 L	3-0 W
Holywell Town	1-0 W	5-3 W
Trefelin BGC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Llandudno	0-2 L	1-1 D
Cambrian United	0-3 L	9-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Caernarfon Town (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Haverfordwest County

LLLWDWWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	11	9	L
29/09	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
26/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
18/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
11/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
04/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
28/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-0	0-2	0	8	L
21/08	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	0-0	0-3	2	2	L
14/08	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	1	L

Caernarfon Town

WWWLWWDWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
26/09	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-1	2-2	11	7	D
18/09	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	3-1	9-1	9	6	W
15/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
11/09	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	2-0	5-0	5	4	W
04/09	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	1-0	3-0	13	4	W
31/08	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	1-2	2-3	7	5	L
28/08	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	3-1	5-3	–	–	W
21/08	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
15/08	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	1-0	3-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Caernarfon Town win (57%). Probabilities: Haverfordwest County 20%, draw 23%, Caernarfon Town 57%.

How many goals are expected in Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Haverfordwest County 1.09 · Caernarfon Town 1.99), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.