Football · Wales Premier League · 09/10, 20:45

Prediction: Penybont vs Barry Town

Team pages: Penybont · Barry Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Penybont1.68

Barry Town1.16

1X2

49% 26% 25%

Penybont Draw Barry Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Penybont 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWWWWL

Barry Town 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDLLW

Head-to-head

Penybont 2–1–3 Barry Town (6 last)

Penybont0-2Barry Town
Barry Town1-0Penybont
Penybont1-1Barry Town
Barry Town2-3Penybont
Barry Town1-2Penybont
Barry Town3-2Penybont

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Penybont 1552 · Barry Town 1556

	Penybont	Draw	Barry Town
Our model	48%	26%	25%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Barry Town: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Penybont	Barry Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	2.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:27 +13’	1.83	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Penybont 2–1–3 Barry Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Wales Premier League	Penybont	0-2 HT 0-2	Barry Town
03/03/26 Wales Premier League	Barry Town	1-0 HT 0-0	Penybont
09/12/25 Wales Premier League	Penybont	1-1 HT 0-0	Barry Town
22/08/25 Wales Premier League	Barry Town	2-3 HT 1-1	Penybont
26/12/24 Wales Premier League	Barry Town	1-2 HT 1-0	Penybont
22/10/24 Wales League Cup	Barry Town	3-2 HT 2-1	Penybont

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	12	11	1	0	38	5	34
2	Connah's Quay	12	9	1	2	28	8	28
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22	10	27
4	Barry Town	12	8	1	3	27	20	25
5	Caernarfon Town	12	7	2	3	35	14	23
6	Colwyn Bay	12	7	1	4	21	15	22
7	Cardiff MU	12	6	3	3	23	13	21
8	Airbus UK	12	6	0	6	21	17	18
9	Cambrian United	12	5	3	4	21	32	18
10	Llandudno	12	5	1	6	21	19	16
11	Briton Ferry	12	3	3	6	11	20	12
12	Haverfordwest County	12	3	1	8	7	17	10
13	Flint Town Utd	12	2	2	8	12	24	8
14	Ammanford AFC	12	1	3	8	9	32	6
15	Trefelin BGC	12	0	3	9	5	30	3
16	Holywell Town	12	0	2	10	13	38	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Penybont	Barry Town
Connah's Quay	0-1 L	1-4 L
Airbus UK	2-1 W	4-2 W
Ammanford AFC	5-1 W	2-2 D
Briton Ferry	3-2 W	4-1 W
Colwyn Bay	1-0 W	2-5 L
Llandudno	2-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Penybont

WWDDWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
26/09	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
18/09	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	4-0	5-1	3	1	W
15/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	3-1	3-2	1	5	W
11/09	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	11	7	W
05/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
31/08	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
28/08	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	7	7	D
21/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
14/08	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	4	1	W

Barry Town

WWWWLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
26/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-3	1-4	–	–	L
18/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	2-1	2-5	0	1	L
15/09	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	1-0	2-2	10	3	D
11/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	9	W
05/09	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
31/08	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	3	4	W
28/08	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	1-0	4-2	5	6	W
21/08	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	5	W
15/08	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Penybont vs Barry Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Penybont win (49%). Probabilities: Penybont 49%, draw 26%, Barry Town 25%.

How many goals are expected in Penybont vs Barry Town?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Penybont 1.68 · Barry Town 1.16), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Penybont vs Barry Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.