Football · Wales Premier League · 09/10, 20:45

Prediction: Cambrian United vs Ammanford AFC

Team pages: Cambrian United · Ammanford AFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Cambrian United2.51

Ammanford AFC1.01

1X2

69% 18% 13%

Cambrian United Draw Ammanford AFC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Cambrian United 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDDWWLWL

Ammanford AFC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLDLLW

Head-to-head

Cambrian United 1–3–2 Ammanford AFC (6 last)

Ammanford AFC0-0Cambrian United
Cambrian United1-1Ammanford AFC
Ammanford AFC1-0Cambrian United
Cambrian United3-2Ammanford AFC
Cambrian United0-0Ammanford AFC
Ammanford AFC3-1Cambrian United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cambrian United 1541 · Ammanford AFC 1414

	Cambrian United	Draw	Ammanford AFC
Our model	69%	18%	13%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cambrian United (rating 1541 vs 1414).
H2H favours Ammanford AFC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cambrian United	Ammanford AFC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.9	0.6 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	1 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.5	3.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)2.00

2 (+1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:44 +10’	1.28	5.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cambrian United 1–3–2 Ammanford AFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/03/26 Wales Championship South	Ammanford AFC	0-0 HT 0-0	Cambrian United
14/11/25 Wales Championship South	Cambrian United	1-1 HT 0-0	Ammanford AFC
11/01/25 Wales Championship South	Ammanford AFC	1-0 HT 0-0	Cambrian United
04/10/24 Wales Championship South	Cambrian United	3-2 HT 1-0	Ammanford AFC
02/03/24 Wales Championship South	Cambrian United	0-0 HT 0-0	Ammanford AFC
09/09/23 Wales Championship South	Ammanford AFC	3-1 HT 2-1	Cambrian United

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	12	11	1	0	38	5	34
2	Connah's Quay	12	9	1	2	28	8	28
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22	10	27
4	Barry Town	12	8	1	3	27	20	25
5	Caernarfon Town	12	7	2	3	35	14	23
6	Colwyn Bay	12	7	1	4	21	15	22
7	Cardiff MU	12	6	3	3	23	13	21
8	Airbus UK	12	6	0	6	21	17	18
9	Cambrian United	12	5	3	4	21	32	18
10	Llandudno	12	5	1	6	21	19	16
11	Briton Ferry	12	3	3	6	11	20	12
12	Haverfordwest County	12	3	1	8	7	17	10
13	Flint Town Utd	12	2	2	8	12	24	8
14	Ammanford AFC	12	1	3	8	9	32	6
15	Trefelin BGC	12	0	3	9	5	30	3
16	Holywell Town	12	0	2	10	13	38	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cambrian United	Ammanford AFC
Llandudno	4-3 W	0-2 L
Caernarfon Town	1-9 L	0-5 L
Trefelin BGC	4-0 W	1-1 D
Holywell Town	2-1 W	2-1 W
Cardiff MU	2-2 D	0-5 L
Penybont	2-2 D	1-5 L
Connah's Quay	0-3 L	0-2 L
Flint Town Utd	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Cambrian United (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cambrian United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-5	0-9	0	2	L
26/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	3-0	4-3	2	4	W
18/09	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	1-3	1-9	6	6	L
15/09	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	1-0	4-0	9	2	W
11/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
04/09	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
31/08	Penybont Wales Premier League	1-1	2-2	2	9	D
28/08	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
21/08	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	2	W
14/08	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W

Ammanford AFC

LLDLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
26/09	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	0-0	0-3	2	0	L
18/09	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-4	1-5	2	1	L
15/09	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-1	2-2	1	3	D
11/09	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	0-2	0-5	0	4	L
04/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
31/08	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
28/08	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
22/08	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
14/08	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cambrian United vs Ammanford AFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cambrian United win (69%). Probabilities: Cambrian United 69%, draw 18%, Ammanford AFC 13%.

How many goals are expected in Cambrian United vs Ammanford AFC?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Cambrian United 2.51 · Ammanford AFC 1.01), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cambrian United vs Ammanford AFC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.