Football · Wales Premier League · 09/10, 20:45
Prediction: Briton Ferry vs Connah's Quay
Team pages: Briton Ferry · Connah's Quay
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.99Total
Briton Ferry0.79
Connah's Quay2.2
1X2
Briton Ferry
Draw
Connah's Quay
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
0-2 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Briton Ferry
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Connah's Quay
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Briton Ferry
2–4
Connah's Quay
(6 last)
- Connah's Quay4-2Briton Ferry
- Briton Ferry0-3Connah's Quay
- Briton Ferry1-0Connah's Quay
- Connah's Quay0-1Briton Ferry
- Connah's Quay2-1Briton Ferry
- Briton Ferry1-5Connah's Quay
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Briton Ferry 1433 · Connah's Quay 1614
| Briton Ferry | Draw | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 20% | 69% |
| Market | 11% | 20% | 69% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Connah's Quay (rating 1433 vs 1614).
- H2H favours Connah's Quay: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Briton Ferry | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 1 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 4.7 | 3 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.5 | 4.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Briton Ferry 2–0–4 Connah's Quay
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/25 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Briton Ferry |
| 11/10/25 Wales Premier League | Briton Ferry | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Connah's Quay |
| 29/03/25 Wales Premier League | Briton Ferry | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Connah's Quay |
| 08/02/25 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Briton Ferry |
| 27/10/24 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Briton Ferry |
| 31/08/24 Wales Premier League | Briton Ferry | 1-5 HT 1-1 | Connah's Quay |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 5 | 34 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 28 |
| 3 | Penybont | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Barry Town | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 20 | 25 |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 22 |
| 7 | Cardiff MU | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 18 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 32 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 10 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 8 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 6 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 3 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 2 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Briton Ferry | Connah's Quay |
|---|---|---|
| Colwyn Bay | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Trefelin BGC | 1-1 D | 6-0 W |
| Penybont | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Haverfordwest County | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Airbus UK | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Barry Town | 1-4 L | 4-1 W |
| Cardiff MU | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Flint Town Utd | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 5 L | 6 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Connah's Quay (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Briton Ferry
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 18/09 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 15/09 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 11/09 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 04/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 31/08 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 14/08 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
Connah's Quay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/09 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 15/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 04/09 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/08 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 14/08 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Briton Ferry vs Connah's Quay?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Connah's Quay win (69%). Probabilities: Briton Ferry 11%, draw 20%, Connah's Quay 69%.
How many goals are expected in Briton Ferry vs Connah's Quay?
The model expects 2.99 goals (Briton Ferry 0.79 · Connah's Quay 2.2), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Briton Ferry vs Connah's Quay?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.