Football · Wales Premier League · 09/10, 20:45

Prediction: Holywell Town vs T.N.S.

Team pages: Holywell Town · T.N.S.

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.55Total

Holywell Town1.27

T.N.S.3.27

1X2

6% 9% 85%

Holywell Town Draw T.N.S.

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Holywell Town 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

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T.N.S. 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Holywell Town 0–1 T.N.S. (1 last)

T.N.S.7-1Holywell Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Holywell Town 1396 · T.N.S. 1629

	Holywell Town	Draw	T.N.S.
Our model	11%	14%	75%
Market	2%	6%	92%

Estimated total (ours) 4.55 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 85%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours T.N.S. (rating 1396 vs 1629).
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Holywell Town	T.N.S.
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.9	3.6 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.6	1.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.9	4.3 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

141.00

X17.00

21.03

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.75)1.85

2 (-3.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.95

Under 4.51.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	41.00 → 41.00	Bet365 41.00
X	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00
2	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:43 +11’	41.00	17.00	1.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Holywell Town 0–0–1 T.N.S.

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/09/15 Wales League Cup	T.N.S.	7-1 HT 3-1	Holywell Town

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	12	11	1	0	38	5	34
2	Connah's Quay	12	9	1	2	28	8	28
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22	10	27
4	Barry Town	12	8	1	3	27	20	25
5	Caernarfon Town	12	7	2	3	35	14	23
6	Colwyn Bay	12	7	1	4	21	15	22
7	Cardiff MU	12	6	3	3	23	13	21
8	Airbus UK	12	6	0	6	21	17	18
9	Cambrian United	12	5	3	4	21	32	18
10	Llandudno	12	5	1	6	21	19	16
11	Briton Ferry	12	3	3	6	11	20	12
12	Haverfordwest County	12	3	1	8	7	17	10
13	Flint Town Utd	12	2	2	8	12	24	8
14	Ammanford AFC	12	1	3	8	9	32	6
15	Trefelin BGC	12	0	3	9	5	30	3
16	Holywell Town	12	0	2	10	13	38	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Holywell Town	T.N.S.
Briton Ferry	1-1 D	1-0 W
Colwyn Bay	0-5 L	5-1 W
Cambrian United	1-2 L	9-0 W
Trefelin BGC	1-1 D	3-1 W
Airbus UK	2-6 L	2-0 W
Caernarfon Town	3-5 L	3-2 W
Barry Town	1-3 L	1-0 W
Llandudno	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 6 L	8 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: T.N.S. (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Holywell Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
26/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
18/09	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
15/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-5	0-5	1	0	L
11/09	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/09	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
31/08	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	1-3	2-6	0	0	L
28/08	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	1-3	3-5	–	–	L
21/08	Barry Town Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
14/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	2	6	L

T.N.S.

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	5-0	9-0	8	2	W
26/09	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
19/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	11	7	W
15/09	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	3-0	5-0	18	1	W
11/09	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
05/09	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
28/08	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	3-0	5-1	6	2	W
21/08	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	1-0	5-0	8	4	W
14/08	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Holywell Town vs T.N.S.?

According to our model, the most likely result is an T.N.S. win (85%). Probabilities: Holywell Town 6%, draw 9%, T.N.S. 85%.

How many goals are expected in Holywell Town vs T.N.S.?

The model expects 4.55 goals (Holywell Town 1.27 · T.N.S. 3.27), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Holywell Town vs T.N.S.?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.