Football · Wales Premier League · 03/10, 15:30

Prediction: Haverfordwest County vs Flint Town Utd

Team pages: Haverfordwest County · Flint Town Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Haverfordwest County1.51

Flint Town Utd1.12

1X2

46% 27% 28%

Haverfordwest County Draw Flint Town Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Haverfordwest County 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Flint Town Utd 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Haverfordwest County 3–1–2 Flint Town Utd (6 last)

Flint Town Utd0-1Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County1-3Flint Town Utd
Flint Town Utd2-2Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County3-1Flint Town Utd
Haverfordwest County4-1Flint Town Utd
Flint Town Utd1-0Haverfordwest County

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Haverfordwest County 1481 · Flint Town Utd 1430

	Haverfordwest County	Draw	Flint Town Utd
Our model	45%	28%	27%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Haverfordwest County (rating 1481 vs 1430).
H2H favours Haverfordwest County: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Haverfordwest County	Flint Town Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	0.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.3	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:24 +9’	1.95	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Haverfordwest County 3–1–2 Flint Town Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Wales Premier League	Flint Town Utd	0-1 HT 0-1	Haverfordwest County
01/03/26 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	1-3 HT 0-1	Flint Town Utd
20/12/25 Wales Premier League	Flint Town Utd	2-2 HT 1-0	Haverfordwest County
04/10/25 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	3-1 HT 1-0	Flint Town Utd
02/11/24 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	4-1 HT 2-1	Flint Town Utd
14/09/24 Wales Premier League	Flint Town Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Haverfordwest County

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	11	10	1	0	29	5	31
2	Penybont	11	8	3	0	22	9	27
3	Connah's Quay	11	8	1	2	27	8	25
4	Caernarfon Town	11	7	2	2	35	13	23
5	Colwyn Bay	11	7	1	3	21	14	22
6	Barry Town	11	7	1	3	26	20	22
7	Cambrian United	11	5	3	3	21	23	18
8	Llandudno	11	5	1	5	21	18	16
9	Cardiff MU	10	4	3	3	21	13	15
10	Airbus UK	11	5	0	6	18	17	15
11	Haverfordwest County	10	3	1	6	7	15	10
12	Briton Ferry	11	2	3	6	10	20	9
13	Flint Town Utd	11	1	2	8	11	24	5
14	Trefelin BGC	11	0	3	8	5	27	3
15	Ammanford AFC	11	0	3	8	7	31	3
16	Holywell Town	11	0	2	9	12	36	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Haverfordwest County	Flint Town Utd
Briton Ferry	3-1 W	0-1 L
Connah's Quay	1-1 D	1-2 L
Cambrian United	0-3 L	0-1 L
Penybont	0-3 L	1-1 D
T.N.S.	0-2 L	0-5 L
Airbus UK	0-1 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Haverfordwest County (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Haverfordwest County

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
18/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
11/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
04/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
28/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-0	0-2	0	8	L
21/08	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	0-0	0-3	2	2	L
14/08	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
07/08	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
01/08	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L

Flint Town Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	0-0	3-0	4	0	W
18/09	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	0-3	1-4	1	4	L
15/09	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-3	0-5	0	1	L
11/09	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
04/09	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
31/08	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
28/08	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
21/08	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
14/08	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
07/08	Barry Town Wales Premier League	2-1	2-3	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Haverfordwest County vs Flint Town Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Haverfordwest County win (46%). Probabilities: Haverfordwest County 46%, draw 27%, Flint Town Utd 28%.

How many goals are expected in Haverfordwest County vs Flint Town Utd?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Haverfordwest County 1.51 · Flint Town Utd 1.12), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Haverfordwest County vs Flint Town Utd?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.