Prediction: Cardiff MU vs Trefelin BGC
Team pages: Cardiff MU · Trefelin BGC
| Cardiff MU | Draw | Trefelin BGC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Market | 70% | 18% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cardiff MU (rating 1533 vs 1424).
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cardiff MU | Trefelin BGC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 0.5 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.1 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.6 | 0.8 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.6 | 2.8 / 0.4 |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 5 | 34 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 28 |
| 3 | Penybont | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Barry Town | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 20 | 25 |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 22 |
| 7 | Cardiff MU | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 18 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 32 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 10 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 8 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 6 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 3 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cardiff MU | Trefelin BGC |
|---|---|---|
| Haverfordwest County | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Caernarfon Town | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Connah's Quay | 0-1 L | 0-6 L |
| Cambrian United | 2-2 D | 0-4 L |
| Ammanford AFC | 5-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Briton Ferry | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| T.N.S. | 0-5 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Cardiff MU (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cardiff MU
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/09 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 18/09 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 11/09 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 04/09 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 31/08 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
Trefelin BGC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 18/09 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 15/09 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 11/09 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 04/09 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 31/08 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 28/08 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 9 | D |
| 21/08 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 14/08 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cardiff MU vs Trefelin BGC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cardiff MU win (70%). Probabilities: Cardiff MU 70%, draw 19%, Trefelin BGC 12%.
How many goals are expected in Cardiff MU vs Trefelin BGC?
The model expects 3.2 goals (Cardiff MU 2.33 · Trefelin BGC 0.87), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Cardiff MU vs Trefelin BGC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.