Football · Wales Premier League · 24/10, 18:15

Prediction: Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County

Team pages: Barry Town · Haverfordwest County

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Barry Town1.69

Haverfordwest County1.22

1X2

47% 26% 26%

Barry Town Draw Haverfordwest County

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Barry Town 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDLLWL

Haverfordwest County 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Barry Town 3–3–0 Haverfordwest County (6 last)

Barry Town1-1Haverfordwest County
Barry Town4-0Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County0-2Barry Town
Haverfordwest County2-3Barry Town
Barry Town1-1Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County1-1Barry Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barry Town 1547 · Haverfordwest County 1455

	Barry Town	Draw	Haverfordwest County
Our model	47%	26%	26%
Market	47%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barry Town (rating 1547 vs 1455).
H2H favours Barry Town: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barry Town	Haverfordwest County
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +12’	1.90	3.40	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Barry Town 3–3–0 Haverfordwest County

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Wales Premier League	Barry Town	1-1 HT 1-0	Haverfordwest County
28/11/25 Wales Premier League	Barry Town	4-0 HT 2-0	Haverfordwest County
04/11/25 Wales League Cup	Haverfordwest County	0-2 HT 0-0	Barry Town
23/09/25 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	2-3 HT 0-0	Barry Town
14/01/25 Wales Premier League	Barry Town	1-1 HT 1-1	Haverfordwest County
24/09/24 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	1-1 HT 1-1	Barry Town

Standings · Wales Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	13	12	1	0	44	6	37
2	Connah's Quay	13	10	1	2	30	9	31
3	Penybont	13	9	3	1	25	11	30
4	Caernarfon Town	13	8	2	3	37	15	26
5	Colwyn Bay	13	8	1	4	22	15	25
6	Barry Town	13	8	1	4	28	23	25
7	Cardiff MU	13	6	3	4	24	16	21
8	Airbus UK	13	7	0	6	25	18	21
9	Cambrian United	13	5	3	5	21	33	18
10	Llandudno	13	5	1	7	22	23	16
11	Briton Ferry	13	3	3	7	12	22	12
12	Haverfordwest County	13	3	1	9	8	19	10
13	Ammanford AFC	13	2	3	8	10	32	9
14	Flint Town Utd	13	2	2	9	12	25	8
15	Trefelin BGC	13	1	3	9	8	31	6
16	Holywell Town	13	0	2	11	14	44	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barry Town	Haverfordwest County
Caernarfon Town	1-0 W	1-2 L
Connah's Quay	1-4 L	1-1 D
Colwyn Bay	2-5 L	0-1 L
Llandudno	4-1 W	0-2 L
Briton Ferry	4-1 W	3-1 W
Holywell Town	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Barry Town (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barry Town

WWWLWDLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Penybont Wales Premier League	1-2	1-3	1	1	L
03/10	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
26/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-3	1-4	–	–	L
18/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	2-1	2-5	0	1	L
15/09	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	1-0	2-2	10	3	D
11/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	9	W
05/09	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
31/08	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	3	4	W
28/08	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	1-0	4-2	5	6	W
21/08	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	5	W

Haverfordwest County

LLWDWWLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
03/10	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	11	9	L
29/09	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
26/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
18/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
11/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
04/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
28/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-0	0-2	0	8	L
21/08	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	0-0	0-3	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barry Town win (47%). Probabilities: Barry Town 47%, draw 26%, Haverfordwest County 26%.

How many goals are expected in Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Barry Town 1.69 · Haverfordwest County 1.22), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.