Football · Wales Premier League · 31/10, 18:15
Prediction: T.N.S. vs Connah's Quay
Team pages: T.N.S. · Connah's Quay
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.25Total
T.N.S.2.44
Connah's Quay0.81
1X2
T.N.S.
Draw
Connah's Quay
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
T.N.S.
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Connah's Quay
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
T.N.S.
5–1
Connah's Quay
(6 last)
- T.N.S.2-1Connah's Quay
- Connah's Quay1-2T.N.S.
- Connah's Quay3-1T.N.S.
- Connah's Quay1-3T.N.S.
- T.N.S.3-0Connah's Quay
- T.N.S.2-1Connah's Quay
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · T.N.S. 1645 · Connah's Quay 1592
| T.N.S. | Draw | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Market | 73% | 17% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours T.N.S. (rating 1645 vs 1592).
- H2H favours T.N.S.: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 14.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| T.N.S. | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.5 / 0.6 | 2 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.1 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.7 / 9 | 2.9 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · T.N.S. 5–0–1 Connah's Quay
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Wales Premier League | T.N.S. | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Connah's Quay |
| 03/03/26 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 1-2 HT 0-0 | T.N.S. |
| 31/12/25 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 3-1 HT 2-0 | T.N.S. |
| 10/09/25 Wales League Cup | Connah's Quay | 1-3 HT 0-2 | T.N.S. |
| 22/08/25 Wales Premier League | T.N.S. | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Connah's Quay |
| 04/05/25 Wales Cup | T.N.S. | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Connah's Quay |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 53 | 6 | 40 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 9 | 34 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 16 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 26 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 25 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 8 | Cardiff MU | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 22 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 36 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 25 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 13 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 12 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 11 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 41 | 9 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 44 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | T.N.S. | Connah's Quay |
|---|---|---|
| Cambrian United | 9-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Llandudno | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Flint Town Utd | 5-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Airbus UK | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Barry Town | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Colwyn Bay | 5-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 0 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
T.N.S.
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 9-0 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 09/10 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 03/10 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
5-0 | 9-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 15/09 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 18 | 1 | W |
| 11/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 28/08 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
Connah's Quay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 09/10 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/10 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/09 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 15/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 04/09 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/08 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in T.N.S. vs Connah's Quay?
According to our model, the most likely result is a T.N.S. win (72%). Probabilities: T.N.S. 72%, draw 18%, Connah's Quay 10%.
How many goals are expected in T.N.S. vs Connah's Quay?
The model expects 3.25 goals (T.N.S. 2.44 · Connah's Quay 0.81), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in T.N.S. vs Connah's Quay?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.