Prediction: Barry Town vs Trefelin BGC
Team pages: Barry Town · Trefelin BGC
- Trefelin BGC1-2Barry Town
- Barry Town2-1Trefelin BGC
- Barry Town3-0Trefelin BGC
| Barry Town | Draw | Trefelin BGC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Market | 67% | 19% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barry Town (rating 1507 vs 1451).
- H2H favours Barry Town: 3-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barry Town | Trefelin BGC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.2 | 0.8 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4 | 1.2 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.4 | 2.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barry Town 3–0–0 Trefelin BGC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/23 Wales Championship South | Trefelin BGC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Barry Town |
| 05/11/22 Wales Championship South | Barry Town | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Trefelin BGC |
| 21/09/21 Wales League Cup | Barry Town | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Trefelin BGC |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 53 | 6 | 40 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 9 | 34 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 16 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 26 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 25 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 8 | Cardiff MU | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 22 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 36 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 25 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 13 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 12 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 11 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 41 | 9 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 44 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barry Town | Trefelin BGC |
|---|---|---|
| Haverfordwest County | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Penybont | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Ammanford AFC | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| T.N.S. | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Briton Ferry | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Airbus UK | 4-2 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Barry Town (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barry Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 09/10 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/10 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 18/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 15/09 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 11/09 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 05/09 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
Trefelin BGC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/10 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 03/10 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 18/09 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 15/09 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 11/09 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 04/09 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 31/08 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 28/08 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barry Town vs Trefelin BGC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Barry Town win (67%). Probabilities: Barry Town 67%, draw 19%, Trefelin BGC 14%.
How many goals are expected in Barry Town vs Trefelin BGC?
The model expects 3.45 goals (Barry Town 2.42 · Trefelin BGC 1.03), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Barry Town vs Trefelin BGC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.