Football · Wales Premier League · 30/10, 20:45

Prediction: Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County

Team pages: Ammanford AFC · Haverfordwest County

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Ammanford AFC0.72

Haverfordwest County2.25

1X2

10% 18% 72%

Ammanford AFC Draw Haverfordwest County

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ammanford AFC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLLWWL

Haverfordwest County 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLLLLW

Head-to-head

Ammanford AFC 0–1–5 Haverfordwest County (6 last)

Ammanford AFC1-1Haverfordwest County
Ammanford AFC0-3Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County2-0Ammanford AFC
Ammanford AFC1-2Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County2-0Ammanford AFC
Ammanford AFC0-1Haverfordwest County

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ammanford AFC 1464 · Haverfordwest County 1505

	Ammanford AFC	Draw	Haverfordwest County
Our model	9%	19%	71%
Market	10%	18%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Haverfordwest County (rating 1464 vs 1505).
H2H favours Haverfordwest County: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ammanford AFC	Haverfordwest County
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 3.3	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.4	0.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.5 / 1.5	2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.7	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

19.00

X5.00

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.98

2 (-1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 9.00▲	Bet365 9.00
X	4.33 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	1.36 → 1.25▼	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +3’	6.50	4.33	1.36
20:03 +6’	9.00▲	5.00▲	1.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ammanford AFC 0–1–5 Haverfordwest County

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/11/24 Wales Cup	Ammanford AFC	1-1 HT 0-1	Haverfordwest County
10/07/24 Club Friendly List	Ammanford AFC	0-3 HT 0-2	Haverfordwest County
11/11/23 Wales Cup	Haverfordwest County	2-0 HT 0-0	Ammanford AFC
13/07/21 UK Friendlies	Ammanford AFC	1-2 HT 1-1	Haverfordwest County
21/02/20 Wales Championship South	Haverfordwest County	2-0	Ammanford AFC
26/11/19 Wales Championship South	Ammanford AFC	0-1 HT 0-1	Haverfordwest County

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	14	13	1	0	53	6	40
2	Connah's Quay	14	11	1	2	32	9	34
3	Penybont	13	9	3	1	25	11	30
4	Caernarfon Town	14	9	2	3	40	16	29
5	Colwyn Bay	14	8	2	4	24	17	26
6	Barry Town	14	8	1	5	29	26	25
7	Airbus UK	14	8	0	6	28	20	24
8	Cardiff MU	14	6	4	4	26	18	22
9	Cambrian United	14	5	3	6	23	36	18
10	Llandudno	14	5	1	8	22	25	16
11	Haverfordwest County	14	4	1	9	11	20	13
12	Briton Ferry	14	3	3	8	13	25	12
13	Flint Town Utd	14	3	2	9	14	25	11
14	Ammanford AFC	14	2	3	9	10	41	9
15	Trefelin BGC	14	1	3	10	8	33	6
16	Holywell Town	13	0	2	11	14	44	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ammanford AFC	Haverfordwest County
Holywell Town	2-1 W	1-0 W
Flint Town Utd	0-3 L	0-1 L
Barry Town	2-2 D	3-1 W
Caernarfon Town	0-5 L	1-2 L
Llandudno	0-2 L	0-2 L
Cardiff MU	0-5 L	0-1 L
Trefelin BGC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Haverfordwest County (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ammanford AFC

DLLLDLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-3	0-9	0	0	L
09/10	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	8	W
03/10	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
26/09	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	0-0	0-3	2	0	L
18/09	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-4	1-5	2	1	L
15/09	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-1	2-2	1	3	D
11/09	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	0-2	0-5	0	4	L
04/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
31/08	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
28/08	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	9	D

Haverfordwest County

LWDWWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Barry Town Wales Premier League	1-0	3-1	3	10	W
09/10	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
03/10	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	11	9	L
29/09	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
26/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
18/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
11/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
04/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
28/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-0	0-2	0	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Haverfordwest County win (72%). Probabilities: Ammanford AFC 10%, draw 18%, Haverfordwest County 72%.

How many goals are expected in Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Ammanford AFC 0.72 · Haverfordwest County 2.25), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.