Football · Wales Premier League · 31/10, 13:30
Prediction: Cardiff MU vs Penybont
Team pages: Cardiff MU · Penybont
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Cardiff MU1.06
Penybont1.75
1X2
Cardiff MU
Draw
Penybont
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Cardiff MU
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Penybont
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cardiff MU
2–3–1
Penybont
(6 last)
- Penybont1-1Cardiff MU
- Cardiff MU0-4Penybont
- Penybont0-0Cardiff MU
- Cardiff MU2-1Penybont
- Penybont2-2Cardiff MU
- Penybont0-1Cardiff MU
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cardiff MU 1538 · Penybont 1579
| Cardiff MU | Draw | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| Market | 22% | 25% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penybont (rating 1538 vs 1579).
- H2H favours Cardiff MU: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cardiff MU | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 1.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 2.4 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.6 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff MU 2–3–1 Penybont
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/26 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Cardiff MU |
| 23/09/25 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Penybont |
| 14/03/25 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cardiff MU |
| 24/01/25 Wales Premier League | Cardiff MU | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Penybont |
| 31/12/24 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Cardiff MU |
| 18/10/24 Wales Cup | Penybont | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Cardiff MU |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 53 | 6 | 40 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 9 | 34 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 16 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 26 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 25 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 8 | Cardiff MU | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 22 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 36 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 25 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 13 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 12 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 11 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 41 | 9 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 44 | 2 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cardiff MU | Penybont |
|---|---|---|
| Colwyn Bay | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Trefelin BGC | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Llandudno | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Connah's Quay | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Flint Town Utd | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Cambrian United | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Ammanford AFC | 5-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Briton Ferry | 3-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 2 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cardiff MU
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 09/10 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 03/10 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/09 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 18/09 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 11/09 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 04/09 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 31/08 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Penybont
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 03/10 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 26/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 18/09 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
4-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 15/09 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 11/09 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 28/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 21/08 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cardiff MU vs Penybont?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Penybont win (52%). Probabilities: Cardiff MU 22%, draw 25%, Penybont 52%.
How many goals are expected in Cardiff MU vs Penybont?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Cardiff MU 1.06 · Penybont 1.75), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Cardiff MU vs Penybont?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.