Prediction: Marcilio Dias vs Portuguesa Desportos
Expected goals: 2.13 (Marcilio Dias 1.01 · Portuguesa Desportos 1.12). The model gives 31% home, 32% draw, 36% away. Under 2 goals (52%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Marcilio Dias sits at 5-3-2 (W-D-L), while Portuguesa Desportos arrives on a 6-3-1 run.
| Marcilio Dias | Draw | Portuguesa Desportos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 32% | 37% |
| Market | 31% | 32% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marcilio Dias | Portuguesa Desportos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.5 | 3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 4.8 / 0 |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A16
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blumenau EC | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | Marcilio Dias | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Sao Joseense | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Sao Jose PA | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Brasil de Pelotas | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| 6 | Azuriz FC | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 9 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marcilio Dias
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | FC Cascavel Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | FC Cascavel Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Sao Joseense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/06 | Azuriz FC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Blumenau EC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
Portuguesa Desportos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 30/05 | Pouso Alegre Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Madureira RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Madureira RJ Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marcilio Dias vs Portuguesa Desportos?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Portuguesa Desportos win (36%). Probabilities: Marcilio Dias 31%, draw 32%, Portuguesa Desportos 36%.
How many goals are expected in Marcilio Dias vs Portuguesa Desportos?
The model expects 2.13 goals (Marcilio Dias 1.01 · Portuguesa Desportos 1.12), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Marcilio Dias vs Portuguesa Desportos?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.