Football · Brazil Serie D · 12/07, 22:00
Prediction: Ferroviario vs Imperatriz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.29Total
Ferroviario1.59
Imperatriz0.7
1X2
Ferroviario
Draw
Imperatriz
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Ferroviario
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Imperatriz
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ferroviario
3–2–0
Imperatriz
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ferroviario 1547 · Imperatriz 1514
| Ferroviario | Draw | Imperatriz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 27% | 15% |
| Market | 58% | 26% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Ferroviario: 3-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ferroviario | Imperatriz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.2 | 2.2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviario 3–2–0 Imperatriz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/26 Brazil Serie D | Imperatriz | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Ferroviario |
| 28/11/20 Brazil Serie C | Ferroviario | 7-0 HT 4-0 | Imperatriz |
| 26/09/20 Brazil Serie C | Imperatriz | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Ferroviario |
| 18/08/19 Brazil Serie C | Imperatriz | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ferroviario |
| 15/06/19 Brazil Serie C | Ferroviario | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Imperatriz |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A7
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferroviario | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Piaui | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Fluminense PI | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | AE Altos | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 11 |
| 5 | CEFAT Tirol | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Atlético Cearense | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 7 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ferroviario
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Imperatriz Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 28/06 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 21/06 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 13/06 | Fluminense PI Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/06 | CEFAT Tirol Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 23/05 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Atlético Cearense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 30/04 | ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 7 | L |
Imperatriz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Ferroviario Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 27/06 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 06/06 | Tuna Luso Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Oratorio RC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Aguia de Maraba Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Tocantinopolis EC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Trem AP Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 05/05 | Trem AP Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/04 | Jacuipense Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ferroviario vs Imperatriz?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferroviario win (58%). Probabilities: Ferroviario 58%, draw 27%, Imperatriz 15%.
How many goals are expected in Ferroviario vs Imperatriz?
The model expects 2.29 goals (Ferroviario 1.59 · Imperatriz 0.7), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ferroviario vs Imperatriz?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.