Football · Brazil Serie D · 12/07, 22:00
Prediction: ASA vs Ivinhema
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
ASA1.65
Ivinhema0.58
1X2
ASA
Draw
Ivinhema
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
ASA
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Ivinhema
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
ASA
1–0
Ivinhema
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ASA 1534 · Ivinhema 1483
| ASA | Draw | Ivinhema | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 26% | 12% |
| Market | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASA (rating 1534 vs 1483).
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ASA | Ivinhema | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 6.3 | 2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.1 | 4.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ASA 1–0–0 Ivinhema
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/26 Brazil Serie D | Ivinhema | 1-2 HT 1-0 | ASA |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A11
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uberlandia | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Betim FC | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | CRAC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Ivinhema | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 13 |
| 5 | ABECAT Ouvidorense | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Operario FC MS | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ASA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Ivinhema Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 21/06 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 13 | D |
| 14/06 | Jacuipense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | CSE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | CSA Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Juazeirense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Atletico Alagoinhas Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 07/05 | Sport Recife Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Atletico Alagoinhas Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
Ivinhema
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | ASA Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 30/06 | Democrata GV Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 21/06 | Democrata GV Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | CRAC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Uberlandia Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 23/05 | Betim FC Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Operario FC MS Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | ABECAT Ouvidorense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | ABECAT Ouvidorense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Operario FC MS Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ASA vs Ivinhema?
According to our model, the most likely result is a ASA win (63%). Probabilities: ASA 63%, draw 25%, Ivinhema 12%.
How many goals are expected in ASA vs Ivinhema?
The model expects 2.23 goals (ASA 1.65 · Ivinhema 0.58), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in ASA vs Ivinhema?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.