Football · Brazil Serie D · 14/07, 01:00
Prediction: America RN vs Trem AP
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
America RN2.45
Trem AP0.6
1X2
America RN
Draw
Trem AP
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
America RN
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Trem AP
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
America RN
1–0
Trem AP
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · America RN 1577 · Trem AP 1491
| America RN | Draw | Trem AP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 16% | 6% |
| Market | 78% | 15% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours America RN (rating 1577 vs 1491).
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| America RN | Trem AP | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 7.7 | 2.3 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · America RN 1–0–0 Trem AP
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/26 Brazil Serie D | Trem AP | 1-4 HT 1-2 | America RN |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A8
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 23 |
| 2 | America RN | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 21 |
| 3 | Maguary PE | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Central SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Sousa EC | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | Laguna RN | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 20 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
America RN
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Trem AP Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Fluminense PI Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Fluminense PI Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Sousa EC Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | ABC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Laguna RN Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 5-0 | 14 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 3 | D |
| 30/04 | Retro FC Brasil Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
Trem AP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | America RN Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Sampaio Correa Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 21/06 | Sampaio Correa Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Aguia de Maraba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Tuna Luso Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 23/05 | Tocantinopolis EC Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Oratorio RC Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Imperatriz Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 05/05 | Imperatriz Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 30/04 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Norte |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in America RN vs Trem AP?
According to our model, the most likely result is a America RN win (78%). Probabilities: America RN 78%, draw 15%, Trem AP 7%.
How many goals are expected in America RN vs Trem AP?
The model expects 3.04 goals (America RN 2.45 · Trem AP 0.6), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in America RN vs Trem AP?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.