Prediction: Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry
Team pages: Caernarfon Town · Briton Ferry
- Caernarfon Town4-1Briton Ferry
- Briton Ferry2-5Caernarfon Town
- Briton Ferry0-1Caernarfon Town
- Caernarfon Town3-2Briton Ferry
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Briton Ferry | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 17% | 13% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caernarfon Town (rating 1581 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Caernarfon Town: 4-0-0.
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caernarfon Town | Briton Ferry | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/0/30% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 7.7 | 1.4 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.9 | 3.4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caernarfon Town 4–0–0 Briton Ferry
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/25 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Briton Ferry |
| 13/09/25 Wales Premier League | Briton Ferry | 2-5 HT 2-1 | Caernarfon Town |
| 09/11/24 Wales Premier League | Briton Ferry | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Caernarfon Town |
| 14/09/24 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Briton Ferry |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 44 | 6 | 37 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 9 | 31 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 26 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 25 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 23 | 25 |
| 7 | Cardiff MU | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 18 | 21 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 33 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 23 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 10 |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 9 |
| 14 | Flint Town Utd | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 25 | 8 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 31 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 44 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caernarfon Town | Briton Ferry |
|---|---|---|
| Haverfordwest County | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Barry Town | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| Cardiff MU | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Flint Town Utd | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Holywell Town | 5-3 W | 1-1 D |
| Trefelin BGC | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Caernarfon Town (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caernarfon Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 03/10 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 18/09 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 9-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 15/09 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 11/09 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 04/09 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 21/08 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Briton Ferry
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/10 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 18/09 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 15/09 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 11/09 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 04/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 31/08 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caernarfon Town win (69%). Probabilities: Caernarfon Town 69%, draw 18%, Briton Ferry 13%.
How many goals are expected in Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry?
The model expects 3.83 goals (Caernarfon Town 2.69 · Briton Ferry 1.14), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.