Football · Wales Premier League · 07/08, 20:45
Prediction: Caernarfon Town vs Penybont
Team pages: Caernarfon Town · Penybont
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
Caernarfon Town1.38
Penybont1
1X2
Caernarfon Town
Draw
Penybont
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Caernarfon Town
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Penybont
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caernarfon Town
3–1–2
Penybont
(6 last)
- Caernarfon Town2-0Penybont
- Penybont0-0Caernarfon Town
- Penybont0-2Caernarfon Town
- Caernarfon Town1-2Penybont
- Penybont3-1Caernarfon Town
- Caernarfon Town3-2Penybont
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caernarfon Town 1502 · Penybont 1461
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caernarfon Town (rating 1502 vs 1461).
- H2H favours Caernarfon Town: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caernarfon Town | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2.2 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 1.7 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caernarfon Town 3–1–2 Penybont
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Penybont |
| 24/01/26 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Caernarfon Town |
| 25/10/25 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Caernarfon Town |
| 20/09/25 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Penybont |
| 13/04/25 Wales Premier League | Penybont | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Caernarfon Town |
| 22/02/25 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Penybont |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff MU | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Colwyn Bay | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Llandudno | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Barry Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Briton Ferry | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Penybont | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | T.N.S. | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Flint Town Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | Ammanford AFC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Cambrian United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Connah's Quay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caernarfon Town | Penybont |
|---|---|---|
| Connah's Quay | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Colwyn Bay | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| T.N.S. | 0-4 L | 0-0 D |
| Barry Town | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Caernarfon Town (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caernarfon Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/07 | FC Levadia Tallinn UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-3 | 0-5 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 09/07 | FC Levadia Tallinn UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/06 | Glentoran Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 18/04 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Flint Town Utd Wales Cup |
3-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 03/04 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/03 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 21/03 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/03 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
Penybont
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 16/07 | FC Santa Coloma UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/07 | FC Santa Coloma UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/06 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/04 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 21/03 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caernarfon Town win (45%). Probabilities: Caernarfon Town 45%, draw 28%, Penybont 27%.
How many goals are expected in Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
The model expects 2.38 goals (Caernarfon Town 1.38 · Penybont 1), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.