Football · Poland III Liga · 15/08, 12:00

Prediction: Widzew Lodz II vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Team pages: Widzew Lodz II · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

Widzew Lodz II2.11

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1.58

1X2

49% 23% 28%

Widzew Lodz II Draw MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Widzew Lodz II 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWLWWL

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLLWW

Head-to-head

Widzew Lodz II 1–1 MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki (2 last)

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1-0Widzew Lodz II
Widzew Lodz II5-0MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Widzew Lodz II 1561 · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1505

	Widzew Lodz II	Draw	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	49%	23%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Widzew Lodz II (rating 1561 vs 1505).
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Widzew Lodz II	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.2	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	3.4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.90

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.13 ★
X	3.90 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
2	3.20 → 2.80▼	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:32 +6’	1.83	3.90	3.20
00:56 +2’	2.05▲	3.80▼	2.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:58 +1’	2.13	3.39	2.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Widzew Lodz II 1–0–1 MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-0 HT 0-0	Widzew Lodz II
23/08/25 Poland III Liga	Widzew Lodz II	5-0 HT 4-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wisloka Debica	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
5	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
6	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
7	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
15	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
16	Korona Kielce II	3	0	0	3	7	10	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Widzew Lodz II

WWWLWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
02/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	3-0	5-1	6	6	W
15/07	Wisloka Debica Europe Friendlies	2-1	5-2	1	2	W
11/07	Banik Ostrava B Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-4	1	2	L
30/05	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	13	8	W
21/05	Legia Warsaw II Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
17/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
13/05	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
10/05	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
30/04	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	3-0	4-0	15	2	W
01/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	7	10	W
15/07	Pelikan Lowicz Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
30/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
23/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	7	3	L
17/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
13/05	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	3-2	3	2	W
09/05	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	2-1	2-4	5	5	L
26/04	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Widzew Lodz II vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Widzew Lodz II win (49%). Probabilities: Widzew Lodz II 49%, draw 23%, MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 28%.

How many goals are expected in Widzew Lodz II vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.7 goals (Widzew Lodz II 2.11 · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1.58), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Widzew Lodz II vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.