Football · Poland III Liga · 23/08, 13:00

Prediction: Blekitni Stargard vs KTS-K Luzino

Team pages: Blekitni Stargard · KTS-K Luzino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Blekitni Stargard1.21

KTS-K Luzino2.07

1X2

21% 22% 57%

Blekitni Stargard Draw KTS-K Luzino

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Blekitni Stargard 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDWWDLWL

KTS-K Luzino 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Blekitni Stargard 1–1–2 KTS-K Luzino (4 last)

Blekitni Stargard1-4KTS-K Luzino
KTS-K Luzino2-2Blekitni Stargard
KTS-K Luzino4-3Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard2-1KTS-K Luzino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blekitni Stargard 1524 · KTS-K Luzino 1553

	Blekitni Stargard	Draw	KTS-K Luzino
Our model	21%	23%	56%
Market	22%	21%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KTS-K Luzino: 2-1-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blekitni Stargard	KTS-K Luzino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	2.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.9	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.10

X4.20

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:32 +10’	4.10	4.20	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blekitni Stargard 1–1–2 KTS-K Luzino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	1-4 HT 0-1	KTS-K Luzino
21/09/25 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	2-2 HT 1-2	Blekitni Stargard
08/06/24 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	4-3 HT 2-1	Blekitni Stargard
18/11/23 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	2-1 HT 0-1	KTS-K Luzino

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Blekitni Stargard

DWDDWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	5	7	L
15/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	4-2	4-2	10	5	W
08/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
01/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
30/05	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	12	4	W
22/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	4	6	W
17/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	10	4	D
13/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
08/05	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
01/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	2	7	D

KTS-K Luzino

WWWLWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
14/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
09/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
01/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	6-2	5	1	W
03/06	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
30/05	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
23/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
17/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-0	5-0	5	2	W
13/05	Cartusia Kartuzy Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
09/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blekitni Stargard vs KTS-K Luzino?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KTS-K Luzino win (57%). Probabilities: Blekitni Stargard 21%, draw 22%, KTS-K Luzino 57%.

How many goals are expected in Blekitni Stargard vs KTS-K Luzino?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Blekitni Stargard 1.21 · KTS-K Luzino 2.07), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Blekitni Stargard vs KTS-K Luzino?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.