Football · Poland III Liga · 23/08, 18:00

Prediction: KSZO Ostrowiec vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Team pages: KSZO Ostrowiec · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

KSZO Ostrowiec1.84

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow0.96

1X2

58% 23% 19%

KSZO Ostrowiec Draw Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

KSZO Ostrowiec 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

KSZO Ostrowiec 2–2–0 Pogon Sokol Lubaczow (4 last)

KSZO Ostrowiec1-1Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow0-0KSZO Ostrowiec
KSZO Ostrowiec1-0Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow0-1KSZO Ostrowiec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KSZO Ostrowiec 1556 · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 1465

	KSZO Ostrowiec	Draw	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KSZO Ostrowiec (rating 1556 vs 1465).
H2H favours KSZO Ostrowiec: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KSZO Ostrowiec	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	2.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:33 +7’	1.53	4.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KSZO Ostrowiec 2–2–0 Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Poland III Liga	KSZO Ostrowiec	1-1 HT 0-0	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
05/10/25 Poland III Liga	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0-0 HT 0-0	KSZO Ostrowiec
10/05/25 Poland III Liga	KSZO Ostrowiec	1-0 HT 1-0	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
12/10/24 Poland III Liga	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0-1 HT 0-1	KSZO Ostrowiec

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KSZO Ostrowiec	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Korona Kielce II	3-2 W	1-3 L
Star Starachowice	0-0 D	3-1 W
Podlasie Biala Podlaska	1-0 W	1-3 L
Sparta Kazimierza Wielka	2-0 W	4-0 W
Chelmianka Chelm	0-1 L	0-1 L
Wisla Krakow II	4-3 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: KSZO Ostrowiec (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KSZO Ostrowiec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	2	7	D
14/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	3-0	3-2	5	5	W
09/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
02/08	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/06	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
30/05	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	Cracovia Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	0	9	W
16/05	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
13/05	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
09/05	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	2-2	4-3	–	–	W

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

LLWWLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
08/08	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
01/08	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/05	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
23/05	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
16/05	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
13/05	Swidniczanka Swidnik Poland III Liga	0-0	3-0	8	0	W
09/05	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	4	8	L
03/05	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KSZO Ostrowiec vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KSZO Ostrowiec win (58%). Probabilities: KSZO Ostrowiec 58%, draw 23%, Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 19%.

How many goals are expected in KSZO Ostrowiec vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow?

The model expects 2.8 goals (KSZO Ostrowiec 1.84 · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 0.96), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in KSZO Ostrowiec vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.