Football · Poland III Liga · 23/08, 17:00

Prediction: Gornik Polkowice vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Team pages: Gornik Polkowice · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Gornik Polkowice1.97

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora1.44

1X2

49% 24% 27%

Gornik Polkowice Draw Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gornik Polkowice 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWLDD

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWDWDW

Head-to-head

Gornik Polkowice 2–1–3 Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (6 last)

Gornik Polkowice1-3Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Gornik Polkowice1-1Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Gornik Polkowice1-4Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora1-2Gornik Polkowice
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora1-3Gornik Polkowice
Gornik Polkowice0-2Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gornik Polkowice 1496 · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 1584

	Gornik Polkowice	Draw	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Our model	49%	24%	27%
Market	49%	24%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (rating 1496 vs 1584).
H2H favours Karkonosze Jelenia Gora: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gornik Polkowice	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2.1	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.2	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.70

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:17 +10’	1.83	3.70	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gornik Polkowice 2–1–3 Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Gornik Polkowice	1-3 HT 0-2	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
17/03/26 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	1-1 HT 1-0	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
17/01/26 Europe Friendlies	Gornik Polkowice	1-4 HT 0-2	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
02/08/25 Poland III Liga	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	1-2 HT 1-1	Gornik Polkowice
07/06/25 Poland III Liga	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	1-3 HT 0-2	Gornik Polkowice
16/11/24 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	0-2 HT 0-1	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gornik Polkowice	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Lechia Zielona Góra	1-2 L	0-4 L
Gornik Zabrze II	0-6 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gornik Polkowice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
14/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-3	6	3	D
08/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	9	L
31/07	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	2-1	5-4	8	2	W
03/06	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
30/05	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	1	7	L
22/05	Gornik Zabrze II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-6	3	2	L
17/05	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	7	0	W
13/05	Pniowek Pawlowice Slaskie Poland III Liga	3-0	7-0	10	1	W
01/05	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	11	3	W

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	5	3	W
14/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
08/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
30/05	Gornik Zabrze II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	4	3	L
17/05	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	2	5	W
13/05	Slowianin Woliborz Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
08/05	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
01/05	LZS Starowice Dolne Poland III Liga	4-0	6-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gornik Polkowice vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gornik Polkowice win (49%). Probabilities: Gornik Polkowice 49%, draw 24%, Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 27%.

How many goals are expected in Gornik Polkowice vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Gornik Polkowice 1.97 · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 1.44), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gornik Polkowice vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.