Football · Poland III Liga · 23/08, 17:30

Prediction: Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Team pages: Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna · Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna1.47

Siarka Tarnobrzeg1.52

1X2

36% 26% 38%

Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Draw Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWDLLD

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLDLWL

Head-to-head

Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna 2–0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg (2 last)

Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna4-1Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg0-2Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna 1526 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1427

	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	Draw	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Our model	36%	27%	38%
Market	36%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna (rating 1526 vs 1427).
H2H favours Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	1.4 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.60

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:31 +1’	2.45	3.60	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna 2–0–0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Poland III Liga	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4-1 HT 2-1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
16/08/25 Poland III Liga	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0-2 HT 0-1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
JKS Jaroslaw	2-2 D	1-3 L
KSZO Ostrowiec	1-2 L	1-2 L
Czarni Polaniec	2-1 W	0-1 L
Avia Swidnik	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna

DWWLWWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
14/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	13	3	L
08/08	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
30/05	Swidniczanka Swidnik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
22/05	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
16/05	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
13/05	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
09/05	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/05	Avia Swidnik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	2	4	D

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

LLDLLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
15/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	4-1	–	–	W
08/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
02/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
30/05	Cracovia Krakow II Poland III Liga	4-3	5-6	5	7	L
24/05	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
16/05	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
13/05	Stal Krasnik Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
09/05	Avia Swidnik Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
02/05	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Siarka Tarnobrzeg win (38%). Probabilities: Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna 36%, draw 26%, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 38%.

How many goals are expected in Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna 1.47 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.52), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.