Football · Poland III Liga · 14/08, 17:30

Prediction: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Zabkovia Zabki

Team pages: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · Zabkovia Zabki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki2.04

Zabkovia Zabki1.34

1X2

53% 23% 24%

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Draw Zabkovia Zabki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWLW

Zabkovia Zabki 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLDWDLLW

Head-to-head

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 0–1 Zabkovia Zabki (1 last)

Zabkovia Zabki2-0Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1586 · Zabkovia Zabki 1470

	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	Draw	Zabkovia Zabki
Our model	53%	23%	24%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (rating 1586 vs 1470).
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	Zabkovia Zabki
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.6	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.6	1.3 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +4’	1.70	3.90	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 0–0–1 Zabkovia Zabki

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/10/24 Poland IV Liga	Zabkovia Zabki	2-0 HT 0-0	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	Wisloka Debica	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	KSZO Ostrowiec	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	Korona Kielce II	2	0	0	2	5	7	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

WWWWWLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	4-1	4-1	8	1	W
31/07	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-3	2-3	8	7	L
21/06	Stomil Olsztyn Poland IV Liga	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
17/06	Sokol Aleksandrow Poland IV Liga	3-0	4-0	9	4	W
06/06	KTS Weszlo Poland IV Liga	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
16/05	Ozarowianka Ozarow Poland IV Liga	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
28/03	Victoria Sulejowek Poland IV Liga	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
02/11	Legionovia Legionowo Poland IV Liga	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
18/10	Ursus Warsawa Poland IV Liga	0-0	3-0	9	1	W
11/10	Blonianka Blonie Poland IV Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Zabkovia Zabki

DLLLDWDLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	0-5	4	7	L
30/05	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
23/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
16/05	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	3-1	6-2	–	–	W
13/05	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
09/05	Legia Warsaw II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
01/05	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	5	8	L
25/04	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
18/04	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	3-3	4	12	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Zabkovia Zabki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win (53%). Probabilities: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 53%, draw 23%, Zabkovia Zabki 24%.

How many goals are expected in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Zabkovia Zabki?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 2.04 · Zabkovia Zabki 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Zabkovia Zabki?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.