Football · Poland III Liga · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elblag

Team pages: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · Olimpia Elblag

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki2.07

Olimpia Elblag1.09

1X2

59% 22% 19%

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Draw Olimpia Elblag

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWLWWW

Olimpia Elblag 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWWDLWWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1583 · Olimpia Elblag 1503

	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	Draw	Olimpia Elblag
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (rating 1583 vs 1503).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	Olimpia Elblag
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.1	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:29 +16’	1.50	4.10	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

WWWLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
14/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-1	3-2	4	1	W
08/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	4-1	4-1	8	1	W
31/07	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-3	2-3	8	7	L
21/06	Stomil Olsztyn Poland IV Liga	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
17/06	Sokol Aleksandrow Poland IV Liga	3-0	4-0	9	4	W
06/06	KTS Weszlo Poland IV Liga	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
16/05	Ozarowianka Ozarow Poland IV Liga	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
28/03	Victoria Sulejowek Poland IV Liga	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
02/11	Legionovia Legionowo Poland IV Liga	1-1	2-1	7	4	W

Olimpia Elblag

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
15/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
07/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	2-1	4-2	5	4	W
31/07	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	4	8	L
18/07	Wda Swiecie Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
15/07	Polonia Lidzbark Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
11/07	Gedania Gdansk Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-0	7	4	W
07/07	Chojniczanka Chojnice Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
30/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
23/05	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	2-3	2-3	7	12	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elblag?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win (59%). Probabilities: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 59%, draw 22%, Olimpia Elblag 19%.

How many goals are expected in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elblag?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 2.07 · Olimpia Elblag 1.09), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elblag?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.