Football · Poland III Liga · 14/08, 19:47

Prediction: Wigry Suwalki vs CK Troszyn

Team pages: Wigry Suwalki · CK Troszyn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Wigry Suwalki2.16

CK Troszyn1.01

1X2

63% 21% 16%

Wigry Suwalki Draw CK Troszyn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Wigry Suwalki 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWLWWD

CK Troszyn 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Wigry Suwalki 1–1 CK Troszyn (2 last)

CK Troszyn3-0Wigry Suwalki
Wigry Suwalki2-1CK Troszyn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wigry Suwalki 1556 · CK Troszyn 1455

	Wigry Suwalki	Draw	CK Troszyn
Our model	63%	22%	16%
Market	63%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wigry Suwalki (rating 1556 vs 1455).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wigry Suwalki	CK Troszyn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.2	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 5.6	2.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:21 +5’	1.40	4.33	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wigry Suwalki 1–0–1 CK Troszyn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Poland III Liga	CK Troszyn	3-0 HT 2-0	Wigry Suwalki
23/08/25 Poland III Liga	Wigry Suwalki	2-1 HT 0-0	CK Troszyn

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	Wisloka Debica	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	KSZO Ostrowiec	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	Korona Kielce II	2	0	0	2	5	7	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wigry Suwalki	CK Troszyn
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	1-1 D	1-0 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	3-1 W	4-1 W
Legia Warsaw II	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CK Troszyn (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Wigry Suwalki

LDWWWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
02/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
30/05	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	3-2	6	3	W
22/05	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
16/05	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	6	1	W
13/05	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	3-0	3-1	–	–	W
09/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
02/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	7	1	W
26/04	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	11	5	D
19/04	Legia Warsaw II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L

CK Troszyn

LWDWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-4	1-4	1	1	L
02/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-3	1-5	4	6	L
15/07	KTS Weszlo Club Friendly List	1-1	2-6	–	–	L
30/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
17/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
13/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	4-1	7	2	W
08/05	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
30/04	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
25/04	Legia Warsaw II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wigry Suwalki vs CK Troszyn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wigry Suwalki win (63%). Probabilities: Wigry Suwalki 63%, draw 21%, CK Troszyn 16%.

How many goals are expected in Wigry Suwalki vs CK Troszyn?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Wigry Suwalki 2.16 · CK Troszyn 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wigry Suwalki vs CK Troszyn?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.