Football · Poland III Liga · 25/09, 16:00

Prediction: Wisla Plock II vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Team pages: Wisla Plock II · Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.76Total

Wisla Plock II1.99

Jagiellonia Bialystok II1.77

1X2

42% 24% 34%

Wisla Plock II Draw Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Wisla Plock II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDLWWDL

Jagiellonia Bialystok II 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDWLDWWL

Head-to-head

Wisla Plock II 1–2–1 Jagiellonia Bialystok II (4 last)

Wisla Plock II0-4Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Jagiellonia Bialystok II1-1Wisla Plock II
Wisla Plock II1-1Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Jagiellonia Bialystok II2-3Wisla Plock II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wisla Plock II 1506 · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1534

	Wisla Plock II	Draw	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Our model	43%	23%	34%
Market	42%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wisla Plock II	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.7	2.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.6	2.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.70

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +7’	2.15	3.70	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wisla Plock II 1–2–1 Jagiellonia Bialystok II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Poland III Liga	Wisla Plock II	0-4 HT 0-2	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
13/09/25 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	1-1 HT 0-1	Wisla Plock II
01/03/25 Poland III Liga	Wisla Plock II	1-1 HT 0-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
10/08/24 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	2-3 HT 0-1	Wisla Plock II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	9	7	2	0	14	2	23
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	9	5	4	0	14	6	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	9	6	0	3	16	14	18
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	9	5	2	2	14	8	17
5	JKS Jaroslaw	9	5	1	3	24	15	16
6	Wisloka Debica	9	5	1	3	12	11	16
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
8	Naprzod Jedrzejow	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
9	Wisla Krakow II	9	3	3	3	12	12	12
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	9	3	2	4	7	9	11
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	9	3	2	4	13	17	11
12	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	16	17	10
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	9	1	6	2	9	10	9
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
15	Star Starachowice	9	1	4	4	7	14	7
16	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
17	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	9	18	6
18	Korona Kielce II	9	1	2	6	20	26	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wisla Plock II	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	2-3 L	3-2 W
LKS Lodz II	2-2 D	2-3 L
Mlawianka Mlawa	5-3 W	7-4 W
LKS Lomza	1-1 D	2-1 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Jagiellonia Bialystok II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wisla Plock II

WWWDDLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
12/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	2	7	D
06/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
29/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	3-0	5-3	5	7	W
23/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-2	3-4	7	3	L
19/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	8	10	D
15/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
31/07	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	8	8	W
30/05	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	6	2	W

Jagiellonia Bialystok II

DWDDWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
12/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	2-2	7-4	6	5	W
05/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
29/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
23/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
19/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
15/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
07/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
31/07	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	3-0	3-2	–	–	W
30/05	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wisla Plock II vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wisla Plock II win (42%). Probabilities: Wisla Plock II 42%, draw 24%, Jagiellonia Bialystok II 34%.

How many goals are expected in Wisla Plock II vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II?

The model expects 3.76 goals (Wisla Plock II 1.99 · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1.77), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wisla Plock II vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.