Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Wda Swiecie vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Team pages: Wda Swiecie · Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.83Total

Wda Swiecie1.65

Polonia Sroda Wlkp2.18

1X2

28% 23% 49%

Wda Swiecie Draw Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Wda Swiecie 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDWWWWDL

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWDD

Head-to-head

Wda Swiecie 2–1–3 Polonia Sroda Wlkp (6 last)

Wda Swiecie3-2Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Polonia Sroda Wlkp5-1Wda Swiecie
Polonia Sroda Wlkp1-1Wda Swiecie
Wda Swiecie2-0Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Wda Swiecie0-3Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Polonia Sroda Wlkp2-1Wda Swiecie

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wda Swiecie 1530 · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 1592

	Wda Swiecie	Draw	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Our model	29%	22%	49%
Market	28%	24%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.83 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp (rating 1530 vs 1592).
H2H favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wda Swiecie	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	2.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.7	2.8 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.75

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:44 +3’	3.25	3.75	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wda Swiecie 2–1–3 Polonia Sroda Wlkp

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	3-2 HT 2-2	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
10/10/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	5-1 HT 2-1	Wda Swiecie
30/05/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	1-1 HT 0-0	Wda Swiecie
09/11/24 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	2-0 HT 1-0	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
01/06/19 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	0-3	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
10/11/18 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	2-1 HT 2-1	Wda Swiecie

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wda Swiecie	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Elana Torun	2-1 W	2-2 D
Notec Czarnkow	2-1 W	0-0 D
Unia Swarzedz	1-0 W	4-3 W
Grom Nowy Staw	4-2 W	4-4 D
Gedania Gdansk	1-1 D	4-3 W
Lipno Steszew	2-1 W	3-2 W
Blekitni Stargard	1-1 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Wda Swiecie (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wda Swiecie

LDWDWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
12/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
04/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	10	7	W
28/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	11	2	W
23/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-2	4-2	7	6	W
15/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
01/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
30/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	5	3	L

Polonia Sroda Wlkp

WWWWWWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
19/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	4-3	5	5	W
05/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-2	4-4	7	6	D
28/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	4-3	6	7	W
22/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
19/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	9	7	W
14/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	4-1	4-1	6	1	W
07/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wda Swiecie vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Polonia Sroda Wlkp win (49%). Probabilities: Wda Swiecie 28%, draw 23%, Polonia Sroda Wlkp 49%.

How many goals are expected in Wda Swiecie vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp?

The model expects 3.83 goals (Wda Swiecie 1.65 · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2.18), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Wda Swiecie vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.