Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: LKS Lomza vs Olimpia Elblag

Team pages: LKS Lomza · Olimpia Elblag

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

LKS Lomza1.54

Olimpia Elblag1.61

1X2

36% 25% 39%

LKS Lomza Draw Olimpia Elblag

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

LKS Lomza 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLLDLL

Olimpia Elblag 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLLWLL

Head-to-head

LKS Lomza 2–1–0 Olimpia Elblag (3 last)

Olimpia Elblag0-3LKS Lomza
LKS Lomza3-0Olimpia Elblag
Olimpia Elblag1-1LKS Lomza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LKS Lomza 1431 · Olimpia Elblag 1442

	LKS Lomza	Draw	Olimpia Elblag
Our model	36%	26%	39%
Market	36%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours LKS Lomza: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LKS Lomza	Olimpia Elblag
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.3	1.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.60

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +16’	2.50	3.60	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LKS Lomza 2–1–0 Olimpia Elblag

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Elblag	0-3 HT 0-0	LKS Lomza
06/09/25 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	3-0 HT 1-0	Olimpia Elblag
06/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Olimpia Elblag	1-1 HT 1-0	LKS Lomza

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LKS Lomza	Olimpia Elblag
Wisla Plock II	1-1 D	1-2 L
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-5 L	1-2 L
KTS Weszlo	0-1 L	1-2 L
Pelikan Lowicz	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpia Elblag (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LKS Lomza

LLLDDLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
18/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
12/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
30/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-4	6	3	L
22/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
19/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	10	D
14/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-4	2-5	4	1	L
08/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
01/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	6	4	L

Olimpia Elblag

LWWLDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
19/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
12/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
04/09	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	1	2	L
29/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	7	3	L
22/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	3	3	D
19/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
15/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
07/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	2-1	4-2	5	4	W
31/07	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	4	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LKS Lomza vs Olimpia Elblag?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Olimpia Elblag win (39%). Probabilities: LKS Lomza 36%, draw 25%, Olimpia Elblag 39%.

How many goals are expected in LKS Lomza vs Olimpia Elblag?

The model expects 3.15 goals (LKS Lomza 1.54 · Olimpia Elblag 1.61), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in LKS Lomza vs Olimpia Elblag?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.