Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 15:00

Prediction: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Polonia Lidzbark

Team pages: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki · Polonia Lidzbark

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki2.21

Polonia Lidzbark1.44

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Draw Polonia Lidzbark

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDLLLW

Polonia Lidzbark 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDWLLD

Head-to-head

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1–1 Polonia Lidzbark (2 last)

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki3-1Polonia Lidzbark
Polonia Lidzbark2-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1492 · Polonia Lidzbark 1443

	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Draw	Polonia Lidzbark
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki (rating 1492 vs 1443).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Polonia Lidzbark
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.1	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.3	1.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:29 +3’	1.67	4.00	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1–0–1 Polonia Lidzbark

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/11/24 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	3-1 HT 2-1	Polonia Lidzbark
03/08/24 Poland III Liga	Polonia Lidzbark	2-1 HT 1-0	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Polonia Lidzbark
Olimpia Elblag	2-1 W	2-4 L
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-2 L	1-2 L
Wisla Plock II	1-2 L	1-1 D
KTS Weszlo	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Polonia Lidzbark (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
18/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	11	7	L
11/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-3	2-4	11	6	L
05/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
29/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	4-3	2	5	W
19/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
14/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	4-0	5-2	7	1	W
08/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
31/07	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	4	5	L

Polonia Lidzbark

LLDLLDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
12/09	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
06/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	5	1	W
29/08	Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
23/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-3	1-4	3	6	L
19/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
07/08	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-2	2-4	4	4	L
01/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	4	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Polonia Lidzbark?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki win (54%). Probabilities: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 54%, draw 22%, Polonia Lidzbark 24%.

How many goals are expected in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Polonia Lidzbark?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 2.21 · Polonia Lidzbark 1.44), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Polonia Lidzbark?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.